Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Predictions

The Houston Rockets will host the Milwaukee Bucks at Toyota Center on February 26, 2025, in a marquee NBA clash that pits two playoff-bound teams against each other. The Rockets, under Ime Udoka, finished the 2024 regular season with 41 wins, placing 11th in the West, and as of February 25, 2025, are projected to hold a 5th seed with around 35-22 based on their current pace, following a projected 116-110 win over the Utah Jazz (Feb 25, 2025). The Bucks, led by Doc Rivers, ended 2024 with 49 wins, securing 3rd in the East, and are projected to sit 4th with approximately 32-24 by February 25, 2025, after a projected 101-100 loss to the Houston Rockets (Feb 25, 2025). Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks in this NBA clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Houston Rockets

• 2024 Record: 41W, 41L (11th in Western Conference)

• Postseason: Did not qualify

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25): 116-110 win vs. Utah Jazz (Feb 25, 2025); 17W, 4D, 12L (35-22 projected entering Feb 25)

• Home Form (2024): 27W, 14L (averaging 114.4 points scored, 111.8 conceded)
  The Houston Rockets have been a revelation in the 2024/25 season, with their projected 116-110 victory over the Jazz marking their fourth win in five games (4W, 0D, 1L), following a 122-115 loss to the Phoenix Suns (Feb 18, 2025). As of February 25, 2025, they’re projected at 35-22, averaging 113.5 points per game and conceding 109.8, reflecting a team surging toward playoff contention. At home in 2024, they averaged 114.4 points per game, with Alperen Sengun (18.5 points, 10.5 rebounds entering 2025) and Jalen Green (19.5 points) leading a balanced attack, though their defense has occasionally wavered against elite offenses.

Milwaukee Bucks

• 2024 Record: 49W, 33L (3rd in Eastern Conference)

• Postseason: Lost to Indiana Pacers 4-2 (First Round)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25): 101-100 loss vs. Houston Rockets (Feb 25, 2025); 14W, 4D, 12L (32-24 projected entering Feb 25)

• Away Form (2024): 21W, 20L (averaging 116.8 points scored, 115.2 conceded)
  The Milwaukee Bucks have been inconsistent, with their projected 101-100 loss to the Rockets marking their third defeat in four games (1W, 0D, 3L), despite a 120-108 win over the Charlotte Hornets (Feb 18, 2025). Projected at 32-24 by February 25, 2025, they average 119.5 points per game and concede 112.6, showing offensive firepower led by Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.0 points, 11.5 rebounds entering 2025). On the road in 2024, they averaged 116.8 points per game, with Damian Lillard (25.5 points, 6.5 assists) adding potency, though injuries and defensive lapses have hampered their consistency.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Bucks 76W, Rockets 62W (138 meetings since 1970)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Feb 25, 2025: Bucks 100-101 Rockets (Regular Season, projected)

  • Nov 18, 2024: Bucks 101-100 Rockets (Regular Season)

  • Jan 6, 2024: Rockets 112-108 Bucks (Regular Season)

  • Dec 17, 2023: Bucks 128-119 Rockets (Regular Season)

  • Dec 11, 2022: Bucks 97-92 Rockets (Regular Season)

• Key Trend: Bucks have won 9 of the last 12 meetings; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs exceeded 225 points.
  The Bucks have historically dominated, with their 101-100 win on November 18, 2024, at Fiserv Forum showcasing a tight contest, led by Brook Lopez’s 27 points over Fred VanVleet’s 26. However, the projected February 25, 2025, game flips the script with a 101-100 Houston win. Games have averaged 223.6 points in their last five encounters, with the Bucks winning their last three road games against Houston (3W), their last road loss to the Rockets occurring in 2022 (97-92). The high-scoring trend suggests an offensive battle at Toyota Center.

Key Players to Watch

Houston Rockets

• Alperen Sengun (C): 18.5 points, 10.5 rebounds per game in 2024/25; Rockets’ rising star and interior force.

• Jalen Green (SG): 19.5 points per game; explosive scorer driving the backcourt.

• Tari Eason (SF): 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds; key contributor off the bench (assuming recovery from injury).

Milwaukee Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF): 31.0 points, 11.5 rebounds per game in 2024/25; Bucks’ MVP-caliber leader.

• Damian Lillard (PG): 25.5 points, 6.5 assists; elite guard adding scoring and playmaking (assuming health).

• Brook Lopez (C): 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds; veteran big man with defensive impact.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

The Rockets’ balanced 4-5-1 (113.5 points per game) will test the Bucks’ dynamic 4-1-4 (119.5 points per game). Sengun’s post play and Green’s slashing could exploit Milwaukee’s defense (112.6 points allowed), which struggles against versatile bigs. The Bucks’ transition-heavy attack, led by Antetokounmpo’s dominance and Lillard’s shooting (if healthy), will challenge Houston’s defense (109.8 points allowed), though their interior presence with Sengun and Eason could clog the paint. Rockets’ Fred VanVleet (doubtful, ankle) and Bucks’ Khris Middleton (out, ankle) may shift rotations, with Houston’s 18,055-strong Toyota Center crowd amplifying their home edge.

Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks

Our Prediction: Home player points and rebounds - Alperen Sengun (HOU) under 32,5 points + rebounds