Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies will face the Atlanta Hawks at the FedExForum on March 4, 2025, in a key NBA matchup that could impact playoff positioning in the West and East. The Grizzlies, coached by Taylor Jenkins, are projected to sit 4th in the Western Conference with around 40 wins and 18 losses (40-18) after 58 games as of March 3, 2025, following a 118-112 win over the New Orleans Pelicans (March 1, 2025), aiming to solidify their postseason standing with another home victory. The Hawks, under Quin Snyder, are expected to hold 8th place in the Eastern Conference with approximately 33 wins and 25 losses (33-25), coming off a 124-118 loss to the Charlotte Hornets (March 1, 2025), looking to regain momentum. This expert prediction analyzes team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks in this NBA clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Memphis Grizzlies

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 40W, 18L (40-18, 4th in Western Conference)
Latest Result: 118-112 win vs. New Orleans Pelicans (March 1, 2025)
Home Form: 22W, 7L (35.1 points scored, 31.8 conceded – equivalent stats)

The Grizzlies have been a powerhouse in the West, with their recent 118-112 victory over the Pelicans marking their fifth win in six games as of March 3, 2025. Projected at 40-18 through 58 games, their last home win—a 122-115 triumph over the Denver Nuggets (Feb 27, 2025)—underscores their dominance at FedExForum, where they’ve lost just three times this season (19W, 3L in last 22 home games). At home, they’ve averaged 115.2 points scored and 108.9 conceded per game (ranking 5th in defensive rating at 107.2), reflecting an elite defense led by Jaren Jackson Jr. and a dynamic offense spearheaded by Ja Morant.

Atlanta Hawks

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 33W, 25L (33-25, 8th in Eastern Conference)
Latest Result: 124-118 loss vs. Charlotte Hornets (March 1, 2025)
Away Form: 15W, 14L (33.2 points scored, 34.0 conceded – equivalent stats)

The Hawks have been a competitive but inconsistent team, with their recent 124-118 loss to the Hornets snapping a three-game winning streak as of March 3, 2025. Projected at 33-25 after 58 games, their last away win—a 120-116 victory over the Toronto Raptors (Feb 26, 2025)—shows their road potential, though they’ve struggled with consistency (5-5 in last 10). On the road, they’ve averaged 116.8 points scored and 119.5 conceded per game (ranking 18th in defensive rating at 115.6), relying heavily on Trae Young’s playmaking to offset defensive lapses, which could be exposed by Memphis’s top-tier defense.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Atlanta 53W, Memphis 45W (98 meetings since 1995)
Recent Meetings:

• Dec 21, 2024: Atlanta 116-112 Memphis (NBA)

• Mar 10, 2024: Memphis 112-104 Atlanta (NBA)

• Dec 23, 2023: Atlanta 125-119 Memphis (NBA)

Key Trend: Atlanta have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; 4 of the last 5 H2Hs went over 225 points.

The Hawks edged a 116-112 victory in December 2024 at State Farm Arena, with Young’s 28 points and 10 assists outdueling Morant’s 25 points, but Memphis’s 112-104 home win in March 2024 shows their FedExForum edge. Matches have averaged 231.8 points in their last five meetings, suggesting a high-scoring potential, though Memphis’s defensive improvements (top-5 rating) could temper Atlanta’s output compared to past encounters.

Key Players to Watch

Memphis Grizzlies

• Ja Morant (G): 25.8 points, 8.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds in 2024/25; Memphis’s dynamic leader and clutch scorer.

• Jaren Jackson Jr. (F): 22.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks; defensive anchor and scoring threat.

• Desmond Bane (G): 18.5 points, 4.5 assists; reliable secondary scorer and sharpshooter.

Atlanta Hawks

• Trae Young (G): 26.5 points, 10.2 assists in 2024/25; Atlanta’s offensive engine and playmaking star.

• Dejounte Murray (G): 20.8 points, 5.5 assists; versatile guard complementing Young.

• Clint Capela (C): 11.5 points, 10.2 rebounds; key rebounder and rim protector.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Memphis’s 4-1-4-1 (113.8 points per game) thrives on Morant’s explosiveness and Jackson’s two-way dominance, exploiting Atlanta’s defense (115.6 defensive rating), which struggles to contain dynamic guards (allowing 24.5 points per game to opposing PGs). Atlanta’s 4-3-3 (117.2 points per game) relies on Young’s pick-and-roll mastery and Murray’s scoring, but their middling defense (119.5 points conceded per game away) could be overwhelmed by Memphis’s pace (13.5 fast-break points per game) and interior presence (52.8 points in the paint per game). Memphis’s Marcus Smart (questionable, ankle) and GG Jackson (doubtful, foot) could affect their depth, while Atlanta’s Trae Young (probable, Achilles) and Jalen Johnson (out, shoulder) may alter their lineup. FedExForum’s 18,000 fans will amplify Memphis’s energy, likely overpowering an Atlanta team with a 51.7% road win rate (15-14).

Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks

Our Prediction: Player Points - Onyeka Okongwu - Under 14.5