Team Form & Recent Performances

AC Milan

• 2025/26 Record: 2W, 1D, 2L in Serie A (7 points, 10th); 2024/25 Serie A 2nd with 20W, 8D, 10L

• Latest Result: Lost 2-1 at Inter Milan (September 22, 2025), won 3-1 vs. Venezia (September 14, 2025)

• Home Form: 1W, 0D, 1L in 2 Serie A home games (4 goals scored, 3 conceded)

AC Milan are mid-table, showing inconsistency after a strong start. Their 2-1 Derby della Madonnina loss to Inter, despite 48% possession and 4 shots on target, exposed defensive frailties. The 3-1 home win over Venezia highlighted attacking potential. At San Siro, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Over their last five games (2W, 1D, 2L), they’ve scored 8 goals and conceded 7. Injuries to Theo Hernández (thigh), Álvaro Morata (hamstring), and doubts over Christian Pulisic (fatigue) weaken their squad. Their 52% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game reflect balance but recent form is concerning.

Napoli

• 2025/26 Record: 3W, 1D, 1L in Serie A (10 points, 3rd); 2024/25 Serie A 3rd with 20W, 8D, 8L

• Latest Result: Won 2-0 vs. Como (September 22, 2025), drew 1-1 at Bologna (September 15, 2025)

• Away Form: 1W, 1D, 0L in 2 Serie A away games (3 goals scored, 1 conceded)

Napoli are in contention, unbeaten in their last four league games. Their 2-0 win over Como, with clean sheets in two of three, showcased defensive solidity under Antonio Conte. The 1-1 draw at Bologna was competitive. Away, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Over their last five games (3W, 1D, 1L), they’ve scored 9 goals and conceded 3. Injuries to Stanislav Lobotka (knee) and doubts over Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (fatigue) are concerns. Their 55% possession and 4.5 shots on target per game indicate superiority.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: AC Milan lead with 18 wins to Napoli’s 15, 16 draws in 49 matches

• Recent Meeting: March 2, 2025—Napoli 2-1 AC Milan (Serie A)

• Key Trend: Napoli won 3 of the last 5 H2Hs; 4 of 5 saw both teams score, averaging 2.6 goals per game; Napoli won their last 2 away H2Hs

Napoli’s 2-1 win in March 2025 at San Paolo, with Victor Osimhen scoring twice, continued their recent edge. AC Milan’s last home win was 2-0 in 2023. Both teams scored in 80% of recent H2Hs, with Napoli averaging 1.6 goals to AC Milan’s 1.4. AC Milan’s home form (1W in 2) meets Napoli’s away resilience (1W, 1D in 2), setting up a high-stakes clash.

Key Players to Watch

AC Milan

• Rafael Leão (FWD): 3 goals in Serie A. Pace and flair on the wing.

• Tijjani Reijnders (MID): 1 goal, 2 assists in Serie A. Midfield creator.

• Mike Maignan (GK): 3 clean sheets in Serie A, 72% save rate. Key against Napoli’s attack.

Napoli

• Victor Osimhen (FWD): 4 goals in Serie A. Scored twice in H2H, a constant threat.

• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (FWD): 2 goals, 3 assists in Serie A. Georgian star.

• Alex Meret (GK): 4 clean sheets in Serie A, 70% save rate. Vital away.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

AC Milan’s 4-2-3-1, under Paulo Fonseca, relies on Leão’s dynamism and Reijnders’ control, with Fikayo Tomori in defense, averaging 52% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game. Without Hernández and Morata, they’ll lean on Olivier Giroud, targeting Napoli’s 0.5 conceded away, but their 1.5 conceded at home is a concern. Napoli’s 3-4-2-1, led by Antonio Conte, uses Osimhen’s finishing and Kvaratskhelia’s flair, with Stanislav Lobotka anchoring, averaging 55% possession and 4.5 shots on target. Without Lobotka, they’ll counter, exploiting AC Milan’s transitions. San Siro’s 75,923 fans will create an electric atmosphere. Web buzz favors Napoli at 2.40 odds, with BTTS at 1.60, citing their H2H edge and form.