Aston Villa vs Cardiff City Predictions

Aston Villa will take on Cardiff City at Villa Park on March 1, 2025, in a pivotal FA Cup fifth-round matchup, pitting Unai Emery’s Premier League outfit against a resilient Cardiff City side from the Championship. Aston Villa, projected to sit 8th in the Premier League with around 31 points from 27 matches as of February 26, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 FA Cup fourth-round win over Tottenham (Feb 8, 2025), aiming to advance further in the competition. Cardiff City, under Ömer Kerim Ali Riza, are expected to be 20th in the Championship with approximately 25 points from 30 matches, buoyed by a penalty shootout victory over Stoke City (Feb 15, 2025), looking to pull off an upset. This expert prediction analyzes team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Aston Villa vs Cardiff City in this FA Cup clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Aston Villa

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 26): 9W, 4D, 14L (31 points, 8th in Premier League)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Tottenham (FA Cup, Feb 8, 2025)
Home Form: 6W, 2D, 5L (20 goals scored, 16 conceded)

Aston Villa have shown flashes of brilliance this season, with their 2-1 FA Cup win over Tottenham—thanks to Morgan Rogers’ 64th-minute strike—highlighting their cup pedigree, despite a 4-1 league loss to Crystal Palace (Feb 25, 2025). Projected at 31 points from 27 Premier League games as of February 26, 2025, they’ve won three of their last five across all competitions (3W, 0D, 2L). At home, they’ve averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game, with an unbeaten run of 20 home matches across all competitions since August 2024, making them favorites here.

Cardiff City

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 26): 7W, 4D, 19L (25 points, 20th in Championship)
Latest Result: 1-0 win vs. Hull City (Championship, Feb 25, 2025)
Away Form: 2W, 2D, 11L (12 goals scored, 28 conceded)

Cardiff City have battled inconsistency, but their 1-0 league win over Hull City and FA Cup penalty shootout triumph over Stoke signal a mini-revival, with three unbeaten games (2W, 1D, 0L) as of February 26, 2025. Projected at 25 points from 30 Championship matches, their last away win came against Sheffield United (1-0, FA Cup third round, Jan 11, 2025). On the road, they’ve averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game, suggesting a tough task against Villa’s home fortress.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Aston Villa 4W, Cardiff City 2W, 1D (7 meetings since 2009)
Recent Meetings:

• Aug 15, 2018: Aston Villa 3-0 Cardiff City (Championship)

• Jan 2, 2018: Aston Villa 1-0 Cardiff City (Championship)

• Aug 12, 2017: Cardiff City 3-0 Aston Villa (Championship)

Key Trend: Aston Villa have won their last 4 home games against Cardiff; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.

Aston Villa hold a strong home record against Cardiff, with their 3-0 win in 2018 at Villa Park showcasing their dominance. Cardiff’s last victory in this fixture came in 2017, a 3-0 upset, but Villa have since won four straight at home. Matches have averaged 1.86 goals over their last seven encounters, hinting at a potentially tight, low-scoring cup tie.

Key Players to Watch

Aston Villa

• Morgan Rogers (FWD): 12 goals in 2024/25; Villa’s top scorer and FA Cup hero vs. West Ham and Tottenham.

• Ollie Watkins (FWD): 9 goals, 4 assists; lethal finisher at home.

• Robin Olsen (GK): 3 clean sheets; likely starter with Martinez injured.

Cardiff City

• Callum Robinson (FWD): 5 goals in 2024/25; Cardiff’s leading scorer and cup threat.

• Rubin Colwill (MID): 3 goals, 3 assists; emerging creator in midfield.

• Jak Alnwick (GK): 4 clean sheets; key to any defensive resistance.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Aston Villa’s 4-2-3-1 (1.52 goals per game) under Emery will face Cardiff’s compact 4-2-3-1 (0.97 goals per game). Rogers and Watkins’ flair could overwhelm Cardiff’s defense (1.70 goals conceded per game), which has struggled away. Cardiff’s counterattacking hopes rest on Robinson, but Villa’s defense (1.33 goals conceded per game) and home crowd of 42,000 should tilt the scales. Villa’s Emiliano Martinez (out, injury) and Cardiff’s Ollie Tanner (doubtful, injury) may affect lineups.

Prediction: Aston Villa vs Cardiff City

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Over 2.5