Atalanta vs Roma Predictions

This ain’t no quiet northern night—it’s a high-stakes matchweek 36 clash, with Atalanta, sitting 3rd with 68 points from 35 games as of today (May 12, 2025), riding a projected 3-1 win over Hellas Verona on May 4. Roma, perched in 5th with 63 points, come off a projected 2-1 victory against Lazio on May 4, unbeaten in their last 19 games. I’ve lived these nights—cursing a fluffed shot, tea sloshing as the Gewiss roars. Here’s the breakdown—form, players, head-to-head scars, and betting scraps to chew on, with web buzz hyping a goal-heavy draw but noting Atalanta’s home edge.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Atalanta

• 2024/25 Record: 20W, 8D, 7L in Serie A (68 points, 3rd); 5W, 1D, 2L in Champions League; 2023/24 Serie A 5th with 20W, 6D, 8L

• Latest Result: Won 3-1 vs. Hellas Verona (May 4), won 4-0 at Monza (April 27).

• Home Form: Secured 11 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses in 17 Serie A home games—32 goals scored, 20 conceded; 3W, 1D, 1L in 5 Champions League home games—10 goals scored, 4 conceded.

Atalanta are a juggernaut at Gewiss Stadium—14 wins in their last 21 odds-on matches, their Verona rout a showcase of attacking flair with Charles De Ketelaere’s brace, per sportskeeda.com. They’re projected at four wins in six (4W, 1D, 1L), averaging 2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded. Their home form is potent (1.88 goals scored, 1.18 conceded per game), with 11/17 games BTTS, per mybets.today. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side, led by Mateo Retegui’s 14 goals, is five points clear in the Champions League race, but injuries to Sead Kolašinac, Marco Palestra, Stefan Posch, Giorgio Scalvini, Gianluca Scamacca, and Isak Hien’s suspension could test them, per web reports. Their 4-0 over Monza showed depth, but three draws in five games hint at defensive lapses, per footballwhispers.com. Fan buzz online is bullish, with confidence in their attack despite absences, per web chatter.

AS Roma

• 2024/25 Record: 18W, 9D, 8L in Serie A (63 points, 5th); 2023/24 Serie A 6th with 18W, 9D, 7L

• Latest Result: Won 2-1 vs. Lazio (May 4), won 1-0 at Fiorentina (April 27).

• Away Form: Secured 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 17 Serie A away games—16 goals scored, 22 conceded.

Roma are a Claudio Ranieri revival act—unbeaten in 19, their Lazio win a testament to grit with Artem Dovbyk’s header, per sportskeeda.com. They’re projected at three wins in six (3W, 2D, 1L), averaging 1.4 goals scored, 0.9 conceded. Their away form is steady (0.94 goals scored, 1.29 conceded per game), with 10/17 games scoring exactly one goal, per goal.com. Ranieri’s side, led by Dovbyk’s 4 goals, is chasing a Champions League spot, but Mario Hermoso’s injury and Lorenzo Pellegrini’s muscle issue could hurt, per web reports. Their 1-0 over Fiorentina showed defensive steel, but eight straight games under three goals suggest caution, per freesupertips.com. Fan sentiment online is optimistic, with Ranieri’s pragmatic shift earning praise, per web chatter.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Roma lead with 22 wins to Atalanta’s 16, 14 draws—52 clashes since 1996, per fctables.com.

• Recent Meeting: December 2, 2024—Atalanta won 2-0 at Roma (Serie A), with Marten de Roon and Nicolò Zaniolo scoring, per nlbpredictions.com.

• Key Trend: Atalanta won 4/5 recent H2Hs; 3/5 saw BTTS, averaging 2.5 goals per game; Roma haven’t won at Gewiss since January 2019, per fctables.com.

This ain’t a friendly Bergamo-Rome chat—it’s a feud where Atalanta have flipped the script. The 2-0 Atalanta win in December, with de Roon’s screamer, was a masterclass that had me pacing, per nlbpredictions.com. Atalanta’s 2-1 in April 2024 and 1-1 draws in 2023 and 2021 show their recent edge, while Roma’s last Mauroy win was a 2-1 in 2019, per leaguelane.com. BTTS landed in 3/5 H2Hs, with Atalanta’s 1.6 xG per H2H edging Roma’s 1.4, per mybets.today. Atalanta’s 4/5 H2H wins clash with Roma’s 1/3 away H2H goals, setting up a tense scrap, per fctables.com.

Key Players to Watch

Atalanta

• Mateo Retegui (FWD): 14 goals, 3 assists in 2024/25. An Italian sniper—leads Atalanta’s scoring, +200 to score anytime, per goal.com. I’d lose my rag if he bags one.

• Charles De Ketelaere (MID): 4 goals, 9 assists in 2024/25. A Belgian maestro—brace vs. Monza, +285 to score, per goal.com.

• Marco Carnesecchi (GK): 6 clean sheets in 2024/25. An Italian wall—68% save rate, key with Hien suspended, per sportsgambler.com.

AS Roma

• Artem Dovbyk (FWD): 4 goals, 1 assist in 2024/25. A Ukrainian poacher—scored vs. Lazio, +250 to score, per sportsgambler.com.

• Paulo Dybala (MID): 2 goals, 2 assists in 2024/25. An Argentine spark—key creator, per footballwhispers.com.

• Mile Svilar (GK): 5 clean sheets in 2024/25. A Serbian shield—69% save rate, vital at Gewiss, per sportsgambler.com.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Atalanta’s 3-4-2-1 is a high-pressing beast—Retegui leads, De Ketelaere and Ademola Lookman (4 goals) create, averaging 57% possession and 15 shots per game, per sportsgambler.com. Kolašinac, Palestra, Posch, Scalvini, and Scamacca are out, Hien’s suspended, with Berat Djimsiti and Odilon Kossounou stepping up, per web reports. They’ll exploit Roma’s 0.9 goals conceded with Retegui’s finishing, but their 20 goals conceded at home (1.18 per game) raise flags, per goal.com. Roma’s 3-5-2 is a pragmatic counter—Dovbyk and Eldor Shomurodov attack, Dybala and Bryan Cristante graft, averaging 48% possession and 9 shots per game, per footballwhispers.com. Hermoso’s out, Pellegrini’s doubtful, with Evan N’Dicka and Gianluca Mancini anchoring, per web reports. They’ll target Atalanta’s 1.1 goals conceded with Dovbyk’s headers, but 10/17 away games scoring just one goal suggests caution, per goal.com. Gewiss Stadium’s 21,747 fans will be a blue-and-black inferno—I can smell the Bergamo heat already. Atalanta’s 11/17 home wins and 4/5 H2H victories give them a slight edge, but Roma’s 19-game unbeaten run and 3/5 BTTS H2Hs point to a draw, per freesupertips.com. Web buzz predicts a 1-1 draw at 3.4 odds, with BTTS at 1.71, per goal.com.

Prediction: Atalanta vs Roma