Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club Predictions

Atlético Madrid will welcome Athletic Club to the Estadio Cívitas Metropolitano on March 2, 2025, in a blockbuster La Liga matchup, as Round 27 brings together two of Spain’s elite teams battling for supremacy. Atlético Madrid, under Diego Simeone, are projected to sit 2nd with around 55 points from 26 matches as of February 27, 2025, following a thrilling 4-4 Copa del Rey draw with Barcelona (Feb 25, 2025), aiming to maintain their title challenge at home. Athletic Club, led by Ernesto Valverde, are expected to be 4th with approximately 50 points, buoyed by a 7-1 thrashing of Real Valladolid (Feb 23, 2025), looking to close the gap to the top three. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club in this La Liga showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Atlético Madrid

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 27): 17W, 4D, 5L (55 points, 2nd in La Liga)
Latest Result: 4-4 draw vs. Barcelona (Copa del Rey, Feb 25, 2025)
Home Form: 9W, 2D, 2L (25 goals scored, 10 conceded)

Atlético Madrid have been relentless this season, with their 4-4 draw against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey—highlighted by Alexander Sørloth’s stoppage-time equalizer—extending an impressive run of form as of February 27, 2025. Projected at 55 points from 26 matches, their last home league win—a 2-0 victory over Getafe (Feb 16, 2025)—shows their Metropolitano strength. At home, they’ve averaged 1.92 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game, blending a potent attack with a disciplined defense that could challenge Athletic Club’s high-flying offense.

Athletic Club

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 27): 15W, 5D, 6L (50 points, 4th in La Liga)
Latest Result: 7-1 win vs. Real Valladolid (Feb 23, 2025)
Away Form: 7W, 3D, 3L (22 goals scored, 15 conceded)

Athletic Club have been in scintillating form, projected at 50 points from 26 matches as of February 27, 2025. Their 7-1 demolition of Real Valladolid, with Nico Williams scoring twice, marked their fourth win in five league games (4W, 1D, 0L), extending an unbeaten run to 16 matches. On the road, they’ve averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game, showcasing attacking flair but occasional defensive lapses that PSG could exploit.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Atlético Madrid 91W, Athletic Club 76W, 35D (202 meetings since 1911)
Recent Meetings:

• Dec 7, 2024: Atlético Madrid 1-0 Athletic Club (La Liga)

• Apr 27, 2024: Atlético Madrid 3-1 Athletic Club (La Liga)

• Feb 29, 2024: Athletic Club 3-0 Atlético Madrid (Copa del Rey)

Key Trend: Atlético have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of the last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.

Atlético Madrid have held a slight edge recently, with their 1-0 win in December 2024 at Metropolitano—thanks to Ángel Correa’s late strike—reinforcing their home dominance. Athletic Club’s 3-0 Copa del Rey upset in February 2024 shows their potential to stun, but Atlético have won three of the last four league encounters at home. Matches have averaged 2.2 goals in their last five meetings, suggesting a tight contest could unfold.

Key Players to Watch

Atlético Madrid

• Antoine Griezmann (FWD): 12 goals, 8 assists in 2024/25; Atlético’s talisman and playmaker.

• Julián Álvarez (FWD): 10 goals; emerging star with clinical finishing.

• Jan Oblak (GK): 9 clean sheets; one of the world’s best shot-stoppers.

Athletic Club

• Nico Williams (FWD): 11 goals, 6 assists in 2024/25; Athletic’s dynamic winger and top scorer.

• Gorka Guruzeta (FWD): 9 goals; physical presence up top.

• Unai Simón (GK): 7 clean sheets; key to defensive resilience.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Atlético’s 4-4-2 (1.88 goals per game) under Simeone blends defensive solidity with swift counters, leveraging Griezmann and Álvarez to test Athletic’s backline (0.96 goals conceded per game). Athletic’s 4-2-3-1 (1.92 goals per game) thrives on Williams’ pace and Guruzeta’s finishing, but Atlético’s home press could disrupt their rhythm. Atlético’s César Azpilicueta (out, injury) and Athletic’s Dani Vivian (doubtful, knock) may affect lineups, with Metropolitano’s 68,000 fans pushing for a home win.

Prediction: Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club

Our Prediction: Atlético Madrid to Win +0

Correct Score - 1-0