Team Form & Recent Performances

Atlético Mineiro

• 2025 Record: 8W, 5D, 12L in Serie A (29 points, 15th); 2024 Serie A 3rd with 18W, 9D, 11L

• Latest Result: Lost 3-0 at Fluminense (October 5, 2025), drew 0-0 vs. Juventude (September 27, 2025)

• Home Form: 5W, 3D, 4L in 12 Serie A home games (19 goals scored, 14 conceded)

Atlético Mineiro are struggling near the relegation zone, with a 3-0 loss at Fluminense exposing attacking woes, managing only one shot on goal despite 56% possession. Their 0-0 draw against Juventude showed defensive resilience but lacked creativity. At Arena MRV, they average 1.58 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game, remaining unbeaten in their last four home matches across all competitions, conceding just one goal. Over their last five games (1W, 2D, 2L), they’ve scored 3 goals and conceded 6. Injuries to Tomás Cuello (ankle), Junior Santos (hip flexor), Alexsander (knee), and Patrick (lumbar vertebrae) weaken their squad, with Bernard doubtful. Their 56% possession and 3.7 shots on target per game reflect a controlled but inconsistent approach.

Sport Recife

• 2025 Record: 4W, 3D, 18L in Serie A (15 points, 20th); 2024 Serie A 19th with 8W, 8D, 18L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Cruzeiro (September 27, 2025), drew 2-2 vs. Fluminense (September 20, 2025)

• Away Form: 2W, 1D, 10L in 13 Serie A away games (8 goals scored, 22 conceded)

Sport Recife are rooted to the bottom, winless in their last six league games. Their 1-1 draw against Cruzeiro, with Derik Lecerda scoring, showed fight with 49% possession, while the 2-2 draw against Fluminense, with goals from Luan Cândido and Lucas Lima, highlighted attacking potential. Away, they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game, struggling significantly on the road. Over their last five games (0W, 3D, 2L), they’ve scored 5 goals and conceded 9. Injuries to Diogo Hereda da Silva (bone bruise), Zé Roberto (knee), and Denis (knee) persist, with Sérgio Oliveira doubtful. Their 49% possession and 3.5 shots on target per game indicate limited attacking threat.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Atlético Mineiro lead with 4 wins to Sport Recife’s 1, 0 draws in 5 matches

• Recent Meeting: May 22, 2024—Sport Recife 1-0 Atlético Mineiro (Copa do Brasil)

• Key Trend: Atlético Mineiro won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs; 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.4 goals per game; Atlético Mineiro won 3 of their last 3 home H2Hs

Atlético Mineiro’s dominance is clear, with a 2-0 home win in November 2024 (Serie A) featuring goals from Hulk and Gustavo Scarpa. Sport Recife’s 1-0 upset in the 2024 Copa do Brasil ended Atlético’s four-game H2H winning streak. Both teams scored in 40% of recent H2Hs, with Atlético Mineiro averaging 1.8 goals to Sport Recife’s 0.6. Atlético’s unbeaten home H2H record (3W) and Sport Recife’s poor away form (2W in 13) heavily favor the hosts.

Key Players to Watch

Atlético Mineiro

• Hulk (FWD): 5 goals in Serie A; scored in 2024 H2H, a key attacking threat.

• Gustavo Scarpa (MID): 2 goals, 3 assists in Serie A; scored in 2024 H2H, creative force.

• Everson (GK): 4 clean sheets in Serie A, 70% save rate; vital for home solidity.

Sport Recife

• Derik Lecerda (FWD): 2 goals in Serie A; scored vs. Cruzeiro, team’s top scorer.

• Lucas Lima (MID): 2 goals, 2 assists in Serie A; scored vs. Fluminense, key playmaker.

• Caíque França (GK): 2 clean sheets in Serie A, 68% save rate; crucial away.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Atlético Mineiro’s 4-2-3-1, under Jorge Sampaoli, relies on Hulk’s power and Scarpa’s creativity, with Fausto Vera and Gabriel Milito in midfield, averaging 56% possession and 3.7 shots on target per game. Despite injuries, they’ll dominate possession, targeting Sport Recife’s 1.69 goals conceded away, with their 1.17 conceded at home a strength. Sport Recife’s 4-2-3-1, led by Daniel Pollo Barioni, uses Lecerda’s movement and Lima’s passing, with José Sabino anchoring defense. They average 49% possession and 3.5 shots on target, relying on counters to exploit Atlético’s transitions, but their injury-hit squad and poor away form limit their threat. Arena MRV’s 47,465 fans will amplify Atlético’s press. Betting trends favor Atlético Mineiro at 1.68 odds, with under 2.5 goals at 1.62, reflecting their home dominance and Sport Recife’s scoring struggles.