AZ vs Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

AZ will face Tottenham Hotspur at the AFAS Stadion on March 6, 2025, in a crucial Europa League Round of 16 first-leg matchup, pitting Maarten Martens’s Cheeseheads against Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs with the tie’s momentum on the line. AZ, projected to sit 3rd in the Eredivisie with around 42 points from 25 matches as of March 5, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 league win over Vitesse (March 2, 2025), having finished 11th in the UEL league phase with 15 points, and aim to leverage their unbeaten home record in Europe this season. Tottenham Hotspur, expected to be 6th in the Premier League with approximately 42 points from 19 matches, arrive after a 1-0 FA Cup fifth-round loss to Aston Villa (March 1, 2025), having placed 5th in the league phase with 16 points, seeking to assert their attacking flair. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win AZ vs Tottenham Hotspur in this Europa League clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

AZ

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 5): 5W, 0D, 3L in UEL League Phase (15 points, 11th); 13W, 3D, 9L in Eredivisie (42 points, 3rd)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Vitesse (Eredivisie, March 2, 2025)
Home Form (UEL): 4W, 0D, 0L (8 goals scored, 3 conceded)

AZ have been a force at home in Europe, with their recent 2-1 league win over Vitesse marking their fourth victory in five games across all competitions (4W, 0D, 1L) as of March 5, 2025. In the UEL league phase, they secured 15 points (5W, 0D, 3L), finishing 11th, with wins over Fenerbahçe (2-0) and Qarabağ (3-1), though losses to Athletic Bilbao (0-2) and Lazio (1-2) showed vulnerabilities. At home in UEL play, they’ve averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game, remaining unbeaten with a 2-0 win over Fenerbahçe highlighting their potency, led by Troy Parrott (5 UEL goals).

Tottenham Hotspur

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 5): 5W, 1D, 2L in UEL League Phase (16 points, 5th); 12W, 6D, 8L in Premier League (42 points, 6th)
Latest Result: 1-0 loss vs. Aston Villa (FA Cup, March 1, 2025)
Away Form (UEL): 2W, 1D, 1L (7 goals scored, 5 conceded)

Tottenham have been inconsistent but dangerous in Europe, with their recent 1-0 FA Cup loss to Aston Villa ending a three-game winning streak across all competitions (3W, 0D, 1L) as of March 5, 2025. In the UEL league phase, they earned 16 points (5W, 1D, 2L), finishing 5th, with wins over Ferencvaros (2-1) and AZ (1-0), though losses to Galatasaray (2-3) and Roma (1-2) exposed defensive frailties. On the road in UEL play, they’ve averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, with Brennan Johnson (4 UEL goals) stepping up amid injuries to key players like Dominic Solanke and James Maddison.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Tottenham Hotspur 1W, AZ 0W, 0D (1 meeting in 2024)
Recent Meeting:

• Oct 24, 2024: Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 AZ (UEL League Phase)

Key Trend: Tottenham won their only prior meeting; the match stayed under 2.5 goals.

Tottenham edged a 1-0 victory in the league phase on October 24, 2024, at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Richarlison’s penalty securing the win against a resilient AZ side. This limited history favors Spurs, averaging 1.0 goal per game, with AZ failing to score, though their unbeaten home form in Europe this season (4W) suggests a tougher challenge in Alkmaar.

Key Players to Watch

AZ

• Troy Parrott (FWD): 10 goals, 3 assists in Eredivisie; 5 UEL goals; AZ’s top scorer and ex-Tottenham striker eager to impress against his former club.

• Sven Mijnans (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists in Eredivisie; 2 UEL goals; creative midfielder with flair and finishing.

• Yukinari Sugawara (DEF): 2 goals, 4 assists; attacking full-back key to AZ’s width.

Tottenham Hotspur

• Brennan Johnson (FWD): 7 goals, 3 assists in Premier League; 4 UEL goals; Tottenham’s in-form winger stepping up amid injuries.

• Dejan Kulusevski (MID): 5 goals, 6 assists in Premier League; 2 UEL goals; versatile playmaker driving the attack.

• Guglielmo Vicario (GK): 6 clean sheets across competitions; vital to Tottenham’s defensive stability.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

AZ’s 4-3-3 (1.63 goals per game in UEL) thrives on Parrott’s finishing and Mijnans’s creativity, exploiting Tottenham’s injury-hit defense (1.25 goals conceded per game in UEL away games), with full-backs like Sugawara providing width, though injuries to Jordy Clasie (doubtful, calf) could disrupt midfield balance. Tottenham’s 4-3-3 (1.88 goals per game in UEL) relies on Johnson’s pace and Kulusevski’s vision, using their high press (avg. 55% possession away) to disrupt AZ’s build-up (0.75 goals conceded per game at home). Tottenham’s Dominic Solanke (out, hamstring), James Maddison (out, ankle), Cristian Romero (out, thigh), and Micky van de Ven (doubtful, knee) are absences, with Archie Gray and Kevin Danso likely at center-back. AFAS Stadion’s 19,000 fans will rally AZ, but Tottenham’s attacking quality could test AZ’s defensive resolve.

Prediction: AZ vs Tottenham Hotspur

Our Prediction: Draw 1-1