Team Form & Recent Performances

Bahia

• 2025 Record: 10W, 7D, 5L in Serie A (37 points, 6th); 2024 Serie A 6th with 16W, 10D, 8L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Ceara (September 20, 2025), lost 1-2 vs. Cruzeiro (September 15, 2025)

• Home Form: 7W, 3D, 1L in 11 Serie A home games (24 goals scored, 10 conceded)

Bahia are mid-table, holding 6th place with solid home form. Their 1-1 draw against Ceara showed grit, equalizing late with 49% possession. The 1-2 loss to Cruzeiro highlighted defensive lapses, conceding 1.8 expected goals (xG). At Arena Fonte Nova, they average 2.18 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game. Over their last five games (2W, 2D, 1L), they’ve scored 7 goals and conceded 6. Injuries to Ademir Santos, Caio Alexandre, David Duarte, Erick, Erick Pulga, and Joao Paulo weaken their squad. Their 50% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game reflect balance.

Palmeiras

• 2025 Record: 18W, 7D, 3L in Serie A (61 points, 1st); 2024 Serie A 1st with 23W, 10D, 5L

• Latest Result: Won 3-1 vs. River Plate (September 24, 2025, Copa Libertadores), won 4-1 vs. Fortaleza (September 20, 2025)

• Away Form: 8W, 4D, 3L in 15 Serie A away games (28 goals scored, 16 conceded)

Palmeiras are league leaders, unbeaten in their last eight games. Their 3-1 win over River Plate in the Copa Libertadores quarterfinal (aggregate 5-2) demonstrated European class. The 4-1 home win over Fortaleza showcased attacking dominance. Away, they average 1.87 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game. Over their last five games (4W, 1D, 0L), they’ve scored 13 goals and conceded 3. Injuries to Figueiredo (cruciate ligament) and Paulinho (shin) are concerns. Their 58% possession and 5.5 shots on target per game indicate superiority.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Palmeiras lead with 12 wins to Bahia’s 4, 9 draws in 25 matches

• Recent Meeting: June 1, 2025—Fortaleza 2-1 Palmeiras? Wait, no: From data, recent Bahia vs Palmeiras: Palmeiras won last 3, including 1-0 in 2024.

• Key Trend: Palmeiras won 3 of the last 3 H2Hs; 2 of 3 had under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.24 goals per game; Palmeiras won 6 of 12 away H2Hs

Palmeiras’ 1-0 win at Bahia in 2024 continued their recent dominance, with clean sheets in the last 3 H2Hs. Bahia’s last win was 2-1 in 2023. Both teams scored in 40% of recent H2Hs, with Palmeiras averaging 1.6 goals to Bahia’s 0.6. Bahia’s home strength (7W in 11) meets Palmeiras’ away resilience (8W in 15), but Palmeiras’ form tilts the scales.

Key Players to Watch

Bahia

• Everaldo (FWD): 5 goals in Serie A. Key home scorer.

• Thaciano (MID): 3 goals, 2 assists in Serie A. Creative force.

• Marcos Felipe (GK): 5 clean sheets in Serie A, 70% save rate. Crucial against Palmeiras’ attack.

Palmeiras

• Raphael Veiga (FWD): 7 goals, 5 assists in Serie A. Midfield maestro.

• Endrick (FWD): 6 goals in Serie A. Young star in form.

• Weverton (GK): 8 clean sheets in Serie A, 72% save rate. Reliable last line.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Bahia’s 4-3-3, under Rogério Ceni, relies on Everaldo’s finishing and Thaciano’s flair, with Gabriel Xavier anchoring defense, averaging 50% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game. Injuries force reliance on Biel, targeting Palmeiras’ 1.07 goals conceded away, but their 0.91 conceded at home is solid. Palmeiras’ 4-2-3-1, led by Abel Ferreira, uses Veiga’s creativity and Endrick’s pace, with Gustavo Gómez in defense, averaging 58% possession and 5.5 shots on target. Without Figueiredo and Paulinho, they’ll press high, exploiting Bahia’s transitions. Arena Fonte Nova’s 47,000 fans will boost Bahia. Web buzz favors Palmeiras at 2.20 odds, with BTTS at 1.65, citing their H2H edge and form.