Benfica vs FC Barcelona Predictions

Benfica will face FC Barcelona at the Estádio da Luz on March 6, 2025, in a crucial Champions League Round of 16 first-leg matchup, pitting Bruno Lage’s Águias against Hansi Flick’s Blaugrana with the tie’s momentum on the line. Benfica, projected to sit 2nd in Liga Portugal with around 58 points from 25 matches as of March 3, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 league win over Porto (March 2, 2025), having finished 15th in the UCL league phase with 13 points, and aim to leverage their home strength after advancing past Monaco in the playoff round (4-3 aggregate). FC Barcelona, expected to be 1st in La Liga with approximately 54 points from 19 matches, arrive after a 3-1 league win over Sevilla (March 2, 2025), having placed 2nd in the league phase with 18 points, seeking to assert their European dominance. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Benfica vs FC Barcelona in this Champions League showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Benfica

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 4W, 1D, 3L in UCL League Phase (13 points, 15th); 19W, 1D, 5L in Liga Portugal (58 points, 2nd)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Porto (Liga Portugal, March 2, 2025)
Home Form (UCL): 2W, 1D, 1L (8 goals scored, 4 conceded)

Benfica have been in scintillating form, with their recent 2-1 league win over Porto marking their sixth victory in seven games across all competitions (6W, 0D, 1L) as of March 3, 2025. In the UCL league phase, they secured 13 points (4W, 1D, 3L), finishing 15th, with wins over Atlético Madrid (4-0) and Juventus (2-0), though losses to Feyenoord (1-3) and Barcelona (4-5) showed inconsistency. Their playoff triumph over Monaco (1-0 home, 3-3 away) earned this matchup. At home in UCL play, they’ve averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game, with a 4-0 rout of Atlético Madrid highlighting their attacking prowess, led by Kerem Aktürkoğlu (6 UCL goals).

FC Barcelona

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 6W, 0D, 2L in UCL League Phase (18 points, 2nd); 17W, 3D, 6L in La Liga (54 points, 1st)
Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Sevilla (La Liga, March 2, 2025)
Away Form (UCL): 3W, 0D, 1L (12 goals scored, 6 conceded)

Barcelona have been a juggernaut under Hansi Flick, with their recent 3-1 league win over Sevilla marking their fifth victory in six games across all competitions (5W, 0D, 1L) as of March 3, 2025. In the UCL league phase, they amassed 18 points (6W, 0D, 2L), finishing 2nd, with wins over Bayern Munich (4-1) and Benfica (5-4), though a loss to Monaco (1-2) was a blemish. On the road in UCL play, they’ve averaged 3.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game, with a 3-0 win at Sporting CP showcasing their attacking flair, though injuries to Dani Olmo (hamstring) and Marc-André ter Stegen (knee) test their depth, mitigated by Raphinha’s form (7 UCL goals).

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Barcelona 4W, Benfica 2W, 2D (8 meetings since 1960)
Recent Meetings (UCL):

• Jan 21, 2025: Benfica 4-5 Barcelona (League Phase)

• Nov 23, 2021: Barcelona 0-0 Benfica (Group Stage)

• Sep 29, 2021: Benfica 3-0 Barcelona (Group Stage)

Key Trend: Barcelona have won 2 of the last 3 UCL meetings; 3 of the last 5 UCL H2Hs saw over 2.5 goals.

Barcelona edged a thrilling 5-4 win in the league phase on January 21, 2025, at the Estádio da Luz, with Raphinha’s hat-trick overturning Benfica’s early lead, showcasing their attacking edge. Benfica’s 3-0 win in September 2021 remains a standout upset, but matches have averaged 2.8 goals in their last five UCL encounters, with both teams scoring in three, suggesting a high-stakes, potentially high-scoring battle, though Benfica’s home resilience (unbeaten in last 8 home games across competitions) adds intrigue.

Key Players to Watch

Benfica

• Kerem Aktürkoğlu (FWD): 10 goals, 7 assists in Liga Portugal; 6 UCL goals; Benfica’s top scorer with pace and flair.

• Ángel Di María (MID): 5 goals, 8 assists in Liga Portugal; 2 UCL goals; veteran creator, doubtful with a muscle injury but key if fit.

• António Silva (DEF): 2 goals; young center-back anchoring Benfica’s defense.

FC Barcelona

• Raphinha (FWD): 12 goals, 10 assists in La Liga; 7 UCL goals; Barcelona’s leading scorer and dynamic winger.

• Lamine Yamal (FWD): 8 goals, 6 assists in La Liga; 3 UCL goals; teenage prodigy with electric pace.

• Iñaki Peña (GK): 6 clean sheets across competitions; stepping up in ter Stegen’s absence.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Benfica’s 4-2-3-1 (1.75 goals per game in UCL) thrives on Aktürkoğlu’s finishing and Di María’s playmaking (if fit), exploiting Barcelona’s injury-hit defense (1.50 goals conceded per game in UCL away games), though absences like Renato Sanches (knee) and Tiago Gouveia (ankle) limit options, with Di María doubtful (muscle). Barcelona’s 4-3-3 (2.63 goals per game in UCL) relies on Raphinha’s flair and Yamal’s pace, using their possession dominance (avg. 58% away) to break down Benfica’s compact defense (1.00 goals conceded per game at home). Barcelona’s Dani Olmo (out, hamstring), Marc-André ter Stegen (out, knee), and Ronald Araújo (doubtful, calf) are concerns, but depth from Robert Lewandowski (5 UCL goals) compensates. The Luz’s 65,000 fans will roar Benfica on, but Barcelona’s attacking quality (21 goals in 8 UCL games) could overwhelm PSV’s defensive resolve.

Prediction: Benfica vs FC Barcelona

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Over 2.5