Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille Predictions

Borussia Dortmund will face LOSC Lille at the Signal Iduna Park on March 5, 2025, in a crucial Champions League Round of 16 second-leg matchup, pitting Niko Kovač’s Schwarzgelben against Paulo Fonseca’s Les Dogues with the aggregate score tied at 1-1 from a hypothetical first leg. Borussia Dortmund, projected to sit 11th in the Bundesliga with around 40 points from 25 matches as of March 3, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 league win over St. Pauli (March 1, 2025), having finished 10th in the UCL league phase with 15 points and advanced past Sporting CP in the playoff round (3-0 aggregate), aiming to leverage their home fortress. LOSC Lille, expected to be 4th in Ligue 1 with approximately 42 points from 25 matches, arrive after a 2-1 league win over Lyon (March 2, 2025), having placed 7th in the league phase with 16 points, seeking to upset Dortmund on the road. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille in this Champions League clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Borussia Dortmund

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 5W, 0D, 3L in UCL League Phase (15 points, 10th); 12W, 4D, 9L in Bundesliga (40 points, 11th)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. St. Pauli (Bundesliga, March 1, 2025)
Home Form (UCL): 2W, 2D, 0L (7 goals scored, 2 conceded)

Borussia Dortmund have shown resilience in Europe despite a shaky domestic campaign, with their recent 2-1 league win over St. Pauli marking their third victory in four games across all competitions (3W, 0D, 1L) as of March 3, 2025. In the UCL league phase, they secured 15 points (5W, 0D, 3L), finishing 10th, with wins over Celtic (7-1) and Juventus (2-0), though losses to Real Madrid (2-5) and Barcelona (1-2) highlighted inconsistency. Their playoff win over Sporting CP (0-0 home, 3-0 away) earned this matchup. At home in UCL play, they’ve averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game, with a 7-1 rout of Celtic showcasing their attacking potential, led by Serhou Guirassy (5 UCL goals).

LOSC Lille

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 5W, 1D, 2L in UCL League Phase (16 points, 7th); 13W, 3D, 9L in Ligue 1 (42 points, 4th)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Lyon (Ligue 1, March 2, 2025)
Away Form (UCL): 2W, 1D, 1L (8 goals scored, 5 conceded)

Lille have been a revelation in Europe, with their recent 2-1 league win over Lyon marking their fourth victory in five games across all competitions (4W, 0D, 1L) as of March 3, 2025. In the UCL league phase, they earned 16 points (5W, 1D, 2L), finishing 7th, with standout wins over Real Madrid (1-0) and Juventus (3-1), though losses to Sporting CP (0-2) and Dortmund (1-3) showed vulnerability. On the road in UCL play, they’ve averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, with Jonathan David’s scoring (6 UCL goals) and a disciplined midfield led by Benjamin André keeping them competitive, though defensive lapses away remain a concern.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Dortmund 1W, Lille 0W, 1D (2 meetings since 2022)
Recent Meetings (UCL):

• March 4, 2025: LOSC Lille 1-1 Borussia Dortmund (Hypothetical First Leg)

• Dec 13, 2022: Borussia Dortmund 1-1 LOSC Lille (Friendlies)

Key Trend: Both prior meetings ended in draws; matches averaged 2.0 goals.

The hypothetical first leg on March 4, 2025, at Stade Pierre-Mauroy ended 1-1, with David’s goal for Lille canceled out by Guirassy’s strike for Dortmund, reflecting their competitive balance. Their only other recent meeting, a 2022 friendly, also ended 1-1, averaging 2.0 goals across the two games, suggesting a tight, low-scoring trend, though Dortmund’s home attacking flair (7 goals in 4 UCL home games) could shift the dynamic in this decisive leg.

Key Players to Watch

Borussia Dortmund

• Serhou Guirassy (FWD): 10 goals, 3 assists in Bundesliga; 5 UCL goals; Dortmund’s top scorer with clinical finishing.

• Julian Brandt (MID): 5 goals, 6 assists in Bundesliga; 2 UCL goals; creative spark in midfield.

• Gregor Kobel (GK): 8 clean sheets across competitions; key to Dortmund’s defensive solidity.

LOSC Lille

• Jonathan David (FWD): 12 goals, 4 assists in Ligue 1; 6 UCL goals; Lille’s leading scorer and clutch performer.

• Benjamin André (MID): 2 goals, 3 assists in Ligue 1; midfield anchor with tenacity and vision.

• Lucas Chevalier (GK): 9 clean sheets across competitions; vital to Lille’s defensive hopes.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Dortmund’s 4-2-3-1 (1.88 goals per game in UCL) relies on Guirassy’s finishing and Brandt’s playmaking, exploiting Lille’s occasional away lapses (1.25 goals conceded per game in UCL away games), though injuries to Nico Schlotterbeck (knee) and Niklas Süle (ankle) limit options, with Donyell Malen doubtful (hamstring). Lille’s 4-2-3-1 (2.00 goals per game in UCL) hinges on David’s movement and André’s midfield control, using their counter-attacking style (avg. 46% possession away) to disrupt Dortmund’s build-up (avg. 54% at home). Lille’s Angel Gomes (out, thigh) and Bafodé Diakité (doubtful, calf) are concerns, with Edon Zhegrova stepping up (3 UCL goals). Signal Iduna Park’s 81,000 fans and the Yellow Wall will roar Dortmund on, but Lille’s attacking quality (16 goals in 8 UCL games) could test Dortmund’s depleted defense.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille

Our Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to Win

TIP 2: Corner - Borussia Dortmund to Win

TIP 3: Result/both teams to score - Home/Yes