Team Form & Recent Performances

Botafogo SP

• 2025 Record: 7W, 8D, 14L in Serie B (29 points, 18th); 2024 Serie B 14th with 10W, 10D, 14L

• Latest Result: Lost 2-1 vs. Ferroviária (October 3, 2025), lost 2-0 at Coritiba (September 27, 2025)

• Home Form: 4W, 4D, 4L in 12 Serie B home games (13 goals scored, 17 conceded)

Botafogo SP are struggling in the relegation zone, with three consecutive losses. Their 2-1 defeat to Ferroviária, despite Alexandre Jesus scoring, showed fight but defensive lapses with 46% possession. The 2-0 loss at Coritiba highlighted their lack of attacking threat, managing just one shot on target. At Estádio Santa Cruz, they average 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game. Over their last five games (0W, 1D, 4L), they’ve scored 4 goals and conceded 10. Injuries to Erickson (suspended) and Leandro Maciel (doubtful, hamstring) weaken their squad. Their 47% possession and 3.3 shots on target per game reflect a toothless attack and shaky defense.

Paysandu

• 2025 Record: 8W, 9D, 12L in Serie B (33 points, 15th); 2024 Serie B 12th with 10W, 11D, 13L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Cuiabá (October 2, 2025), drew 1-1 vs. Sport Recife (September 27, 2025)

• Away Form: 2W, 3D, 7L in 12 Serie B away games (12 goals scored, 20 conceded)

Paysandu are just above the relegation zone, unbeaten in their last three games. Their 1-1 draw against Cuiabá, with Marlon Douglas de Sales Silva scoring a late penalty, showed resilience with 49% possession. The 1-1 draw against Sport Recife was competitive. Away, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded per game, struggling on the road. Over their last five games (1W, 3D, 1L), they’ve scored 6 goals and conceded 6. No major injuries reported, with a fully fit squad under Thiago Carpini. Their 50% possession and 3.8 shots on target per game indicate a balanced but inconsistent approach.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Paysandu lead with 3 wins to Botafogo SP’s 1, 2 draws in 6 matches

• Recent Meeting: April 27, 2024—Paysandu 1-0 Botafogo SP (Serie B)

• Key Trend: Paysandu are unbeaten in their last three H2Hs (2W, 1D); 4 of 6 H2Hs had under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.83 goals per game; Paysandu won 2 of 3 away H2Hs

Paysandu’s 1-0 win in April 2024, with Eliel Pereira Silva scoring, continued their recent dominance. The August 2024 clash ended 1-1 at Estádio Santa Cruz, with both teams sharing the spoils. Both teams scored in 50% of recent H2Hs, with Paysandu averaging 1.17 goals to Botafogo SP’s 0.67. Botafogo SP’s home struggles (4W in 12) face Paysandu’s inconsistent away form (2W in 12), but Paysandu’s H2H edge suggests a tight, low-scoring contest.

Key Players to Watch

Botafogo SP

• Alexandre Jesus (FWD): 4 goals in Serie B; top scorer, scored vs. Ferroviária.

• Jonathan Cafu (MID): 2 goals, 1 assist in Serie B; key playmaker with pace.

• João Victor (GK): 3 clean sheets in Serie B, 67% save rate; vital for home resilience.

Paysandu

• Marlon Douglas de Sales Silva (FWD): 3 goals in Serie B; scored vs. Cuiabá, a key threat.

• Eliel Pereira Silva (FWD): 2 goals in Serie B; scored in April 2024 H2H, dangerous.

• Matheus Nogueira (GK): 3 clean sheets in Serie B, 70% save rate; crucial away.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Botafogo SP’s 4-3-3, under Allan Aal, relies on Jesus’s finishing and Cafu’s flair, with Gabriel Bispo anchoring midfield, averaging 47% possession and 3.3 shots on target per game. Without Erickson and with Maciel doubtful, they’ll lean on Douglas Baggio to target Paysandu’s 1.67 goals conceded away, but their leaky defense (1.42 conceded at home) is a concern. Paysandu’s 4-2-3-1, led by Thiago Carpini, uses Marlon Douglas and Eliel’s pace, with Nicolas Godinho in midfield, averaging 50% possession and 3.8 shots on target. They’ll counter, exploiting Botafogo SP’s defensive frailties, leveraging their H2H success. Estádio Santa Cruz’s 29,292 fans will push Botafogo SP, but their three-game losing streak dampens momentum. Betting trends favor Paysandu +0.25 Asian Handicap at -118 odds, with under 2.5 goals at 1.54, reflecting Paysandu’s H2H edge and low-scoring trends.