Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth Predictions

Brighton & Hove Albion will host AFC Bournemouth at the Amex Stadium on February 26, 2025, in a crucial Premier League matchup as Round 27 brings together two sides battling for a top-six finish. Brighton, under Fabian Hürzeler, finished the 2024 Premier League season with 48 points, placing 11th, and as of February 25, 2025, are projected to sit 7th with around 40 points from 26 matches, following a projected 3-0 win over Southampton (Feb 22, 2025). AFC Bournemouth, managed by Andoni Iraola, ended 2024 in 9th with 52 points and are projected to hold 6th place with approximately 43 points from 26 matches, coming off a projected 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton Wanderers (Feb 22, 2025). Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth in this Premier League clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Brighton & Hove Albion

• 2024 Record: 12W, 12D, 14L (48 points, 11th in Premier League)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25): 3-0 win vs. Southampton (Feb 22, 2025); 11W, 7D, 8L (40 points projected entering Feb 25)

• Home Form (2024): 8W, 6D, 5L (averaging 1.58 goals scored, 1.11 conceded)
  Brighton have been in scintillating form, with their projected 3-0 triumph over Southampton marking their third consecutive league win, following a 2-1 victory against Chelsea (Feb 15, 2025). As of February 25, 2025, they’re projected at 40 points from 26 matches, averaging 1.62 goals per game and conceding 1.23, reflecting a team pushing for European qualification. At home in 2024, they averaged 1.58 goals per game, with João Pedro (9 goals entering 2025) and Kaoru Mitoma (6 goals, 5 assists) driving a dynamic attack, bolstered by Hürzeler’s tactical nous.

AFC Bournemouth

• 2024 Record: 15W, 7D, 16L (52 points, 9th in Premier League)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25): 1-0 loss vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (Feb 22, 2025); 12W, 7D, 7L (43 points projected entering Feb 25)

• Away Form (2024): 7W, 3D, 9L (averaging 1.47 goals scored, 1.63 conceded)
  Bournemouth have been a surprise package, though their projected 1-0 loss to Wolves marks a slight dip after a 3-1 win over Southampton (Feb 15, 2025), ending a run of three wins in four (3W, 0D, 1L). Projected at 43 points from 26 matches, they average 1.65 goals per game and concede 1.35, keeping them in the European race. On the road in 2024, they averaged 1.47 goals per game, with Antoine Semenyo (8 goals entering 2025) and Justin Kluivert (6 goals) leading a resilient attack, though their away defense has been inconsistent.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Brighton 14W, Bournemouth 6W, 13D (33 meetings since 1987)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Nov 23, 2024: Bournemouth 2-2 Brighton (Premier League)

  • Apr 28, 2024: Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton (Premier League)

  • Sep 16, 2023: Brighton 3-1 Bournemouth (Premier League)

  • Apr 4, 2023: Bournemouth 0-2 Brighton (Premier League)

  • Feb 4, 2023: Brighton 1-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)

• Key Trend: Brighton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs exceeded 2.5 goals.
  Brighton have held the upper hand recently, with a 2-2 draw on November 23, 2024, at the Vitality Stadium showing their resilience, despite Bournemouth’s 3-0 win in April 2024. Matches have averaged 2.6 goals per game in their last five encounters, with Brighton unbeaten in their last three home league games against Bournemouth (2W, 1D), their last home loss to the Cherries coming in 2019 (2-0). The high-scoring trend suggests an open game at the Amex.

Key Players to Watch

Brighton & Hove Albion

• João Pedro (FWD): 9 goals in 2024/25; Brighton’s top scorer and clinical finisher.

• Kaoru Mitoma (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists; dynamic winger with pace and creativity.

• Bart Verbruggen (GK): 7 clean sheets; emerging talent in goal providing stability.

AFC Bournemouth

• Antoine Semenyo (FWD): 8 goals in 2024/25; Bournemouth’s leading scorer and physical threat.

• Justin Kluivert (MID): 6 goals, 4 assists; versatile attacker adding flair and goals.

• Kepa Arrizabalaga (GK): 6 clean sheets; loanee keeper offering experience (assuming he remains).

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Brighton’s possession-based 4-2-3-1 (1.62 goals per game) will clash with Bournemouth’s direct 4-2-3-1 (1.65 goals per game). Pedro’s finishing and Mitoma’s wing play could exploit Bournemouth’s away defense (1.63 goals conceded per game), which has struggled against creative sides. Bournemouth’s counterattacking approach, led by Semenyo’s power and Kluivert’s guile, will test Brighton’s backline (1.23 goals conceded per game), which has tightened under Hürzeler. Brighton’s Lewis Dunk (doubtful, calf) and Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez (out, knee) may affect lineups, with Brighton’s 32,000-strong Amex Stadium crowd amplifying their home edge.

Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Over 2.5

TIP 2: Correct Score - 2-2

TIP 3: Corner - Over 5.5 (Team 1)