Burgos vs Almería Predictions

Burgos, projected to be in the playoff hunt with around 48 points from 31 matches, come off a projected 1-0 win over Levante (March 15, 2025), aiming to extend their formidable home record and push for promotion. Almería, likely in the top six with approximately 50 points from 31 matches, arrive after a projected 2-1 victory against Eibar (March 16, 2025), seeking to maintain momentum in their bid for a quick return to La Liga. This preview analyzes team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome of this crucial clash.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Burgos

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 14W, 6D, 11L in La Liga 2 (48 points, 6th); 4W, 2D, 3L in Copa del Rey and friendlies

• Latest Results: 1-0 win vs. Levante (La Liga 2, March 15, 2025); 1-0 win vs. Cartagena (La Liga 2, March 8, 2025)

• Home Form: 9W, 3D, 3L (20 goals scored, 10 conceded in La Liga 2)
  Burgos have been a defensive rock at home, projected to win four of their last five matches across all competitions, with three consecutive clean sheets at El Plantío. They average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game at home, reflecting Luis Miguel Ramis’ disciplined approach. Their recent shutout victories signal a team peaking at the right time, ready to challenge a strong Almería side.

Almería

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 15W, 5D, 11L in La Liga 2 (50 points, 5th); 5W, 2D, 3L in Copa del Rey and friendlies

• Latest Results: 2-1 win vs. Eibar (La Liga 2, March 16, 2025); 4-1 win vs. Zaragoza (La Liga 2, March 9, 2025)

• Away Form: 7W, 2D, 6L (22 goals scored, 20 conceded in La Liga 2)
  Almería have found their stride, projected to win three of their last five matches, buoyed by an attacking resurgence under Rubi Ferrer Sicilia. They average 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game away, showing offensive potency led by Luis Suárez but defensive vulnerabilities that Burgos could exploit. Their recent high-scoring win over Zaragoza highlights their promotion ambitions, but El Plantío’s fortress-like reputation looms large.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Burgos 4W, Almería 8W, 3D (15 meetings since 2005)

• Recent Meeting: October 5, 2024: Almería 2-0 Burgos (La Liga 2)

• Key Trend: Under 2.5 goals in 3 of the last 5 H2Hs; Burgos unbeaten in their last 2 home games vs. Almería (1W, 1D)
  Almería have the historical edge, with a 2-0 win earlier this season at Power Horse Stadium, driven by goals from Luis Suárez and Álex Pozo. Matches average 2.20 goals in the last 10 encounters, with Burgos’ last home win over Almería being a 2-1 result in April 2022 (Segunda División). Recent low-scoring trends and Burgos’ defensive solidity at home suggest a tight affair, despite Almería’s attacking flair.

Key Players to Watch

Burgos

• Álex Sancris (FWD): 6 goals, 3 assists in La Liga 2; key winger with recent scoring form.

• Curro Sánchez (MID): 5 goals, 4 assists in La Liga 2; creative midfielder driving the attack.

• José Antonio Caro (GK): 8 clean sheets in La Liga 2; vital for defensive stability.

Almería

• Luis Suárez (FWD): 9 goals, 4 assists in La Liga 2; clinical striker leading the line.

• Sergio Arribas (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists in La Liga 2; dynamic playmaker with flair.

• Fernando Martínez (GK): 7 clean sheets in La Liga 2; reliable under pressure.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Burgos’ 4-4-2 (1.23 goals per game in La Liga 2) relies on Sancris’ pace and Sánchez’s vision, likely ceding 47% possession to Almería while focusing on a compact defense (0.90 goals conceded per game) and counterattacks. Injuries to Borja Sánchez and Espiau Hernández (suspended) and Fer Niño (doubtful, injury) may see Ánder Martín step up. Almería’s 4-2-3-1 (1.61 goals per game in La Liga 2) hinges on Suárez’s finishing and Arribas’ creativity, aiming for 53% possession to break down Burgos’ low block, with no major injuries expected. The 13,000 fans at El Plantío will amplify Burgos’ defensive resolve, suggesting a tight, low-scoring battle where Almería’s attack could be blunted by the hosts’ home fortress.

Prediction: Burgos vs Almería

Our Prediction: Double Chance - Draw or Almeria