Cagliari vs Genoa Predictions

Cagliari will face Genoa at the Unipol Domus on March 8, 2025, in a key Serie A matchup, with both teams battling for critical points in the 2024/25 season’s second half. Cagliari, projected to sit 15th with around 25 points from 27 matches as of March 6, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 league loss to Bologna (March 2, 2025), aiming to halt a slide and distance themselves from the relegation zone. Genoa, expected to be 12th with approximately 31 points from 27 matches, arrive after a 1-1 draw with Empoli (March 2, 2025), looking to maintain their mid-table cushion. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Cagliari vs Genoa in this Serie A showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Cagliari

• 2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 6): 6W, 7D, 14L in Serie A (25 points, 15th)

• Latest Result: 2-1 loss vs. Bologna (Serie A, March 2, 2025)

• Home Form: 4W, 4D, 5L (16 goals scored, 17 conceded) Cagliari have struggled recently, with their 2-1 defeat to Bologna marking their third loss in four games (1W, 0D, 3L) as of March 6, 2025. Projected at 25 points from 27 matches, they’re just three points above the relegation zone, with a 2-1 win over Parma (Feb 15, 2025) as a rare highlight. At Unipol Domus, they’ve averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game, showing some home resilience but defensive frailty, now facing a Genoa side they’ve historically matched closely.

Genoa

• 2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 6): 7W, 10D, 10L in Serie A (31 points, 12th)

• Latest Result: 1-1 draw vs. Empoli (Serie A, March 2, 2025)

• Away Form: 3W, 5D, 5L (13 goals scored, 18 conceded) Genoa have been steady but unspectacular, with their 1-1 draw against Empoli extending a run of two games without a win (0W, 2D, 1L) as of March 6, 2025. Projected at 31 points from 27 matches, they’re comfortably mid-table, with a 2-1 win over Parma (Feb 14, 2025) showing their road potential. Away from home, they’ve averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game, with Andrea Pinamonti (8 goals) leading the attack, but their inconsistency could be tested by Cagliari’s desperation.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Cagliari 16W, Genoa 15W, 11D (42 meetings since 2018)

• Recent Meeting:
  November 24, 2024: Genoa 1-1 Cagliari (Serie A, Round 13)

• Key Trend: Four of the last five H2Hs ended in draws; 60% produced under 2.5 goals. The November 2024 clash ended in a 1-1 draw, with Pinamonti scoring for Genoa and Roberto Piccoli replying for Cagliari, reflecting a trend of tight, low-scoring affairs (avg. 2.0 goals in last 5 H2Hs). Cagliari’s 2-0 home win in April 2023 shows they can upset Genoa at Unipol Domus, setting up a balanced contest.

Key Players to Watch

Cagliari

• Roberto Piccoli (FWD): 7 goals, 2 assists in Serie A; Cagliari’s top scorer with physicality.

• Tommaso Augello (MID): 3 goals, 4 assists; key creator from the wing.

• Elia Caprile (GK): 4 clean sheets; vital for defensive hopes.

Genoa

• Andrea Pinamonti (FWD): 8 goals, 3 assists in Serie A; Genoa’s leading striker.

• Morten Frendrup (MID): 3 goals, 4 assists; dynamic midfielder with energy.

• Gollini (GK): 5 clean sheets; anchors a solid backline.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Cagliari’s 4-4-2 (1.15 goals per game) relies on Piccoli’s finishing and Augello’s width, targeting Genoa’s moderate away defense (1.38 goals conceded per game), though Zito Luvumbo’s doubtful status (knock) may see Gianluca Gaetano step in. Genoa’s 3-5-2 (1.07 goals per game) hinges on Pinamonti’s movement and Frendrup’s tenacity, aiming to counter (avg. 47% possession away), with Mattia Bani questionable (injury) but likely replaced by Koni De Winter. Unipol Domus’s 16,000 fans will rally Cagliari, but Genoa’s defensive resolve could lead to a cagey, low-scoring battle.

Prediction: Cagliari vs Genoa

Our Prediction: Draw 1-1

TIP 2: Both Team to Score - No

TIP 3: Under 2.5 goals