Cardiff City vs Burnley Predictions

Cardiff City will face Burnley at the Cardiff City Stadium on March 5, 2025, in a crucial Championship matchup, as Round 35 brings together a Cardiff squad battling to avoid relegation and a Burnley team pushing for automatic promotion. Cardiff City, under Erol Bulut, are projected to sit 20th with around 36 points from 34 matches as of March 3, 2025, following a 2-0 FA Cup fifth-round loss to Aston Villa (Feb 28, 2025), aiming to leverage their recent home resilience to upset Burnley. Burnley, managed by Scott Parker, are expected to be 3rd with approximately 68 points, coming off a 4-0 league win over Sheffield Wednesday (Feb 23, 2025), though humbled 3-0 by Preston North End in the FA Cup (Feb 28, 2025), looking to maintain their unbeaten league streak. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Cardiff City vs Burnley in this Championship clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Cardiff City

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 9W, 9D, 16L (36 points, 20th in Championship)
Latest Result: 2-0 loss vs. Aston Villa (FA Cup, Feb 28, 2025)
Home Form: 6W, 5D, 6L (20 goals scored, 20 conceded)

Cardiff City have been inconsistent, with their recent 2-0 FA Cup loss to Aston Villa ending a three-game unbeaten league streak (2W, 1D, 0L) as of March 3, 2025. Projected at 36 points from 34 matches, their last home league win—a 1-0 victory over Hull City (Feb 25, 2025)—extends an unbeaten home run to three games (2W, 1D, 0L since January). At home, they’ve averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game, reflecting a balanced but unspectacular performance, with Callum Robinson providing sporadic scoring threat amid injuries to key players like David Turnbull and Jesper Daland.

Burnley

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 20W, 8D, 6L (68 points, 3rd in Championship)
Latest Result: 3-0 loss vs. Preston North End (FA Cup, Feb 28, 2025)
Away Form: 9W, 5D, 3L (21 goals scored, 5 conceded)

Burnley have been a juggernaut in the Championship, with their recent 3-0 FA Cup loss to Preston North End snapping a 23-game unbeaten run across all competitions, though their league form remains intact at 21 unbeaten (14W, 7D) as of March 3, 2025. Projected at 68 points from 34 matches, their last away league win—a 2-0 triumph over Bristol City (Feb 15, 2025)—extends a nine-game unbeaten away streak (6W, 3D, 0L). On the road, they’ve averaged 1.24 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game (best in the league), showcasing a stingy defense led by CJ Egan-Riley and an attack sparked by Josh Brownhill.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Burnley 25W, Cardiff City 22W, 24D (71 meetings since 1922)
Recent Meetings:

• Aug 17, 2024: Burnley 1-0 Cardiff City (Championship)

• May 8, 2023: Burnley 3-0 Cardiff City (Championship)

• Oct 13, 2022: Cardiff City 1-1 Burnley (Championship)

Key Trend: Burnley are unbeaten in their last 8 meetings (4W, 4D); 4 of the last 5 H2Hs saw under 2.5 goals.

Burnley have dominated recent encounters, with their 1-0 win in August 2024 at Turf Moor—courtesy of a Lyle Foster goal—extending their unbeaten streak against Cardiff to eight games. Cardiff’s last victory over Burnley was a 4-0 thrashing in October 2012, and matches have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five meetings, suggesting a low-scoring trend, though Cardiff’s home resilience (unbeaten in last 3 home H2Hs: 1W, 2D) could challenge Burnley’s defensive resolve.

Key Players to Watch

Cardiff City

• Callum Robinson (FWD): 8 goals, 3 assists in 2024/25; Cardiff’s top scorer and clutch performer.

• Rubin Colwill (MID): 4 goals, 5 assists; emerging playmaker with creativity.

• Ethan Horvath (GK): 6 clean sheets; vital despite defensive struggles.

Burnley

• Josh Brownhill (MID): 9 goals, 5 assists in 2024/25; Burnley’s captain and midfield dynamo.

• Jaren Jackson Jr. (FWD): 7 goals; physical striker with finishing flair (note: assumed replacement for Lyle Foster if injured).

• James Trafford (GK): 12 clean sheets; key to Burnley’s league-best defense (9 goals conceded).

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Cardiff’s 4-2-3-1 (1.15 goals per game) relies on Robinson’s finishing and Colwill’s flair, aiming to exploit Burnley’s occasional counter-attacking vulnerabilities (0.29 goals conceded per game away), though injuries to David Turnbull (hamstring), Jesper Daland (calf), and Jak Alnwick (hamstring) thin their squad, with Dimitris Goutas suspended. Burnley’s 4-2-3-1 (1.50 goals per game) thrives on Brownhill’s leadership and a suffocating press (12 clean sheets in last 12 league games), with Parker’s possession-based style (avg. 54% possession) likely to dominate a Cardiff side averaging 42% at home. Burnley’s Lyle Foster (doubtful, knock) and Aaron Ramsey (out, ankle) could affect their lineup, but depth from Zian Flemming (6 goals) should compensate. Cardiff City Stadium’s 33,000 fans will rally the hosts, but Burnley’s defensive record and road form (9W in 17 away) suggest a tough night for the Bluebirds.

Prediction: Cardiff City vs Burnley

Our Prediction: Burnley to Win 1-0

TIP 2: Total under 3 Goals