Team Form & Recent Performances

Casa Pia

• 2025/26 Record: 2W, 4D, 3L in Liga Portugal (10 points, 11th); 2024/25 Liga Portugal 9th with 12W, 10D, 14L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Famalicão (September 22, 2025), won 1-0 vs. Le Havre (September 14, 2025)

• Home Form: 1W, 2D, 1L in 4 Liga Portugal home games (5 goals scored, 5 conceded)

Casa Pia are mid-table, showing resilience with a 1-1 draw against Famalicão, where João Carvalho scored the equalizer with 49% possession. Their 1-0 win over Le Havre highlighted defensive solidity. At Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Over their last five games (1W, 3D, 1L), they’ve scored 5 goals and conceded 4. No major injuries reported, with a fully fit squad under Gonçalo Santos. Their 49% possession and 3.5 shots on target per game reflect a balanced approach.

Estoril

• 2025/26 Record: 1W, 2D, 3L in Liga Portugal (5 points, 17th); 2024/25 Liga Portugal 8th with 11W, 10D, 15L

• Latest Result: Lost 1-0 at Sporting CP (September 27, 2025), drew 1-1 vs. Rio Ave (September 20, 2025)

• Away Form: 0W, 1D, 2L in 3 Liga Portugal away games (2 goals scored, 4 conceded)

Estoril are near the relegation zone, with a 1-0 loss at Sporting CP showing defensive issues despite 45% possession. Their 1-1 draw against Rio Ave was gritty. Away, they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Over their last five games (0W, 2D, 3L), they’ve scored 3 goals and conceded 6. Injuries to Yanis Begraoui (thigh, late October 2025) and doubts over Vinícius Zanocelo are concerns. Their 48% possession and 3.2 shots on target per game suggest caution.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Estoril lead with 6 wins to Casa Pia’s 1, 3 draws in 10 matches

• Recent Meeting: December 15, 2024—Estoril 1-0 Casa Pia (Liga Portugal)

• Key Trend: Estoril won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs; 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.6 goals per game; Estoril won 2 of 3 away H2Hs

Estoril’s 1-0 win in December 2024, with a late goal, continued their dominance. Casa Pia’s sole win was in 2023 (2-1). Both teams scored in 40% of recent H2Hs, with Estoril averaging 1.9 goals to Casa Pia’s 0.7. Casa Pia’s home form (1W, 2D in 4) meets Estoril’s away struggles (0W in 3), setting up a tight contest.

Key Players to Watch

Casa Pia

• João Carvalho (FWD): 2 goals in Liga Portugal. Scored vs. Famalicão, key threat.

• Iyad Mohamed (MID): 1 goal, 2 assists in Liga Portugal. Creative spark.

• Patrick Sequeira (GK): 2 clean sheets in Liga Portugal, 68% save rate. Vital at home.

Estoril

• Yanis Begraoui (FWD): 1 goal in Liga Portugal; muscle injury until late October, doubtful.

• Vinícius Zanocelo (MID): 1 assist in Liga Portugal. Playmaker, doubtful.

• Joel Robles (GK): 1 clean sheet in Liga Portugal, 70% save rate. Key away.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Casa Pia’s 3-4-3, under Gonçalo Santos, relies on Carvalho’s finishing and Mohamed’s flair, with João Goulart anchoring defense, averaging 49% possession and 3.5 shots on target per game. They’ll target Estoril’s 1.33 conceded away, with their 1.25 conceded at home a strength. Estoril’s 3-4-3, led by Vasco Seabra, uses Begraoui’s pace and Zanocelo’s creativity, averaging 48% possession and 3.2 shots on target. With Begraoui and Zanocelo doubtful, they’ll counter, exploiting Casa Pia’s transitions. Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior’s 6,000 fans will boost Casa Pia. Web buzz favors Casa Pia at 2.05 odds, with under 2.5 goals at 1.80, citing home form and Estoril’s injuries.