Team Form & Recent Performances

Ceará

• 2025 Record: 8W, 7D, 10L in Serie A (31 points, 11th); 2024 Serie B 1st with 18W, 9D, 7L (promoted)

• Latest Result: Lost 1-0 at Vitória (September 27, 2025), drew 1-1 vs. Bahia (September 20, 2025)

• Home Form: 5W, 3D, 4L in 12 Serie A home games (18 goals scored, 12 conceded)

Ceará are mid-table, showing resilience despite a 1-0 loss at Vitória, where they managed 52% possession but only 3 shots on target. Their 1-1 draw against Bahia highlighted defensive solidity. At Castelão, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, with a strong home record. Over their last five games (1W, 2D, 2L), they’ve scored 5 goals and conceded 6. Injuries to Richardson, Fernandinho, Luiz Otávio, Aylon, and Bruno Ferreira weaken their squad, but Dieguinho returns from suspension. Their 49% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game reflect a balanced approach, with a focus on counter-attacks.

Santos

• 2025 Record: 7W, 7D, 11L in Serie A (28 points, 16th); 2024 Serie B 2nd with 17W, 8D, 9L (promoted)

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Grêmio (September 27, 2025), lost 6-0 at Vasco da Gama (September 20, 2025)

• Away Form: 3W, 3D, 7L in 13 Serie A away games (10 goals scored, 20 conceded)

Santos are teetering above the relegation zone, with a 1-1 draw against Grêmio showing fight despite a 6-0 thrashing at Vasco da Gama exposing defensive frailties. Away, they average 0.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game, struggling on the road. Over their last five games (1W, 3D, 1L), they’ve scored 5 goals and conceded 9. Neymar’s absence due to injury continues to impact their attack, but they have a clean bill of health otherwise. Their 52% possession and 4.5 shots on target per game indicate attacking intent, but finishing remains a concern.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Santos lead with 9 wins to Ceará’s 3, 7 draws in 19 matches since 2010

• Recent Meeting: May 12, 2025—Santos 0-0 Ceará (Serie A)

• Key Trend: Santos won 2 of the last 3 H2Hs; 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.4 goals per game; Santos won 2 of their last 3 away H2Hs

The May 2025 clash ended in a 0-0 draw at Allianz Parque, with both teams failing to convert chances. Santos’ 2-1 win in 2024 (Serie B) highlighted their historical edge. Both teams scored in only 20% of recent H2Hs, with Santos averaging 1.1 goals to Ceará’s 0.6. Ceará’s home strength (5W in 12) faces Santos’ poor away form (3W in 13), but the low-scoring H2H trend suggests a tight match.

Key Players to Watch

Ceará

• Pedro Raul (FWD): 4 goals in Serie A; top scorer, crucial in the final third.

• Lucas Mugni (MID): 2 assists in last 5 games; orchestrates play with 80% pass accuracy.

• Bruno Ferreira (GK): 4 clean sheets in Serie A, 68% save rate; vital despite injury concerns.

Santos

• Benjamín Rollheiser (FWD): 3 goals in Serie A; key for attacking movement.

• Álvaro Barreal (MID): 3 assists in Serie A; creative spark in midfield.

• Gabriel Brazão (GK): 3 clean sheets in Serie A, 70% save rate; essential for away resilience.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Ceará’s 4-3-3, under Léo Condé, relies on Pedro Raul’s finishing and Mugni’s playmaking, with Matheus Bahia and Fernando Sobral in midfield, averaging 49% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game. Without key defenders, they’ll lean on Dieguinho’s return to target Santos’ 1.54 goals conceded away, with their 1.0 conceded at home a strength. Santos’ 4-2-3-1, led by Cesar Sampaio, uses Rollheiser’s movement and Barreal’s creativity, with João Schmidt anchoring. They average 52% possession and 4.5 shots on target, relying on counters to exploit Ceará’s transitions, but Neymar’s absence and their 7 away losses limit their threat. Castelão’s 63,903 fans will amplify Ceará’s press. Betting trends favor Ceará at 2.46 odds and under 2.5 goals at 1.80, reflecting home advantage and low-scoring H2Hs.