Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Team Form & Recent Performances

Fatih Karagümrük

• 2025/26 Record: 2W, 1D, 2L in Super Lig (7 points, 12th); 2024/25 First League 1st with 25W, 8D, 5L (promoted)

• Latest Result: Won 2-1 vs. Antalyaspor (Super Lig, September 13, 2025), drew 1-1 vs. Kasımpaşa (Super Lig, September 6, 2025)

• Home Form: 1W, 1D, 0L in 2 Super Lig home games (3 goals scored, 2 conceded)

Fatih Karagümrük are adapting well after promotion, sitting 12th in the Super Lig. Their 2-1 win over Antalyaspor, with a late equalizer and winner, showed resilience, per. At Atatürk Olympic Stadium, they've been solid, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home game, per. Over their last five games (3W, 1D, 1L), they've scored 8 goals and conceded 5, per. No major injuries reported, with a full squad available, per. Their 48% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game reflect balanced play, but a 1-0 loss to Kayserispor in August exposed early-season jitters, per.

İstanbul Başakşehir

• 2025/26 Record: 3W, 2D, 1L in Super Lig (11 points, 8th); 2024/25 Super Lig 13th with 11W, 10D, 15L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Beşiktaş (Super Lig, September 13, 2025), drew 0-0 vs. Eyüpspor (Super Lig, September 7, 2025)

• Away Form: 1W, 2D, 0L in 3 Super Lig away games (3 goals scored, 2 conceded)

İstanbul Başakşehir are in consistent form, holding 8th place. Their 1-1 draw at Beşiktaş demonstrated grit, holding firm despite pressure, per. Away form is resilient, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game, per. Over their last five games (2W, 2D, 1L), they've scored 6 goals and conceded 4, per. No significant injuries, though squad rotation is expected, per. Their 52% possession and 4.5 shots on target per game show control, but a 2-0 loss to Fenerbahçe in August highlighted vulnerabilities, per.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Fatih Karagümrük lead with 5 wins to İstanbul Başakşehir’s 0, 4 draws in 9 matches

• Recent Meeting: August 10, 2025—Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 İstanbul Başakşehir (Super Lig)

• Key Trend: Fatih Karagümrük won 5 of 9 H2Hs; 5 of 9 saw both teams score, averaging 2.44 goals per game; Fatih Karagümrük unbeaten in 6 home H2Hs (4W, 2D)

The August 2025 opener saw Fatih Karagümrük win 2-0 at home, dominating possession and chances, per. Historically, Başakşehir have struggled, failing to win any of the 9 meetings, per. Both teams scored in 56% of H2Hs, with Fatih averaging 1.8 goals to Başakşehir’s 0.6, per. Fatih’s home unbeaten streak (6 games) contrasts with Başakşehir’s away draws (2 in 3), promising a tight Istanbul derby, per.

Key Players to Watch

Fatih Karagümrük

• Lucas Torreira (MID): 2 goals, 3 assists in Super Lig. His midfield dominance and passing (85% accuracy) drive attacks, per.

• Doğan Alemdar (GK): 2 clean sheets in Super Lig, 72% save rate. Key in high-stakes derbies, per.

• Can Bozdoğan (FWD): 3 goals in Super Lig. A rising star with pace to exploit spaces, per.

İstanbul Başakşehir

• Edin Višća (FWD): 4 goals, 2 assists in Super Lig. The all-time top scorer (109 goals for club), lethal from set-pieces, per.

• Deniz Türüç (MID): 1 goal, 4 assists in Super Lig. Creative force with 5 key passes per game, per.

• Volkan Babacan (GK): 3 clean sheets in Super Lig, 70% save rate. Veteran presence against Fatih’s attack, per.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Fatih Karagümrük’s 4-2-3-1, under Shota Arveladze, relies on Torreira’s control and Bozdoğan’s runs, averaging 48% possession and 4.0 shots on target per game, per. With a full squad, they’ll press high to target Başakşehir’s 0.67 goals conceded away, but their 1.0 conceded at home must hold, per. İstanbul Başakşehir’s 4-3-3, led by Çağdaş Atan, uses Višća’s flair and Türüç’s creativity, averaging 52% possession and 4.5 shots on target, per. They’ll counter through the wings, exploiting Fatih’s transitions, but their winless H2H record (0W in 9) is a psychological hurdle, per. The 77,000-capacity Atatürk Olympic Stadium will roar, boosting Fatih’s intensity. Web buzz favors Fatih at 2.10 odds, with BTTS at 1.70, citing H2H dominance and home form, per.