FC Barcelona vs Benfica Predictions

FC Barcelona will face Benfica at the Camp Nou on March 11, 2025, in a Champions League Round of 16 second-leg matchup, leading 2-1 from the first leg (March 4, 2025). Barcelona, likely 1st in La Liga with around 62 points from 27 matches, come off a 3-1 league win over Sevilla (March 8, 2025), aiming to advance to the quarter-finals. Benfica, expected 2nd in Liga Portugal with about 58 points from 25 matches, arrive after a 2-0 league win over Gil Vicente (March 8, 2025), needing to overturn the deficit. This preview covers team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome.

Team Form & Recent Performances

FC Barcelona

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 19W, 5D, 3L in La Liga (62 points, 1st); 6W, 1D, 1L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Sevilla (La Liga, March 8, 2025); 2-1 win vs. Benfica (UCL, March 4, 2025)

• Home Form: 10W, 2D, 1L (30 goals scored, 10 conceded in La Liga); 4W in UCL home games Barcelona are in top form, winning their last five games, including a 2-1 first-leg victory over Benfica (goals from Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha). They average 2.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game at home in La Liga, facing a Benfica side they’ve beaten recently.

Benfica

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 18W, 4D, 3L in Liga Portugal (58 points, 2nd); 5W, 1D, 3L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 2-0 win vs. Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, March 8, 2025)

• Away Form: 8W, 2D, 2L (22 goals scored, 12 conceded in Liga Portugal); 2W in UCL away games Benfica have won four of their last five games, including a 2-0 victory over Gil Vicente. Away in the Champions League, they average 2.00 goals scored but 2.50 conceded per game, needing at least a 1-0 win to force extra time against Barcelona’s strong home defense.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Barcelona 4W, Benfica 2W, 3D (9 meetings since 1960)

• Recent Meeting:
  March 4, 2025: Benfica 1-2 Barcelona (Champions League, Round of 16, First Leg)

• Key Trend: Barcelona have won 3 of the last 4 H2Hs; 60% of recent meetings saw over 2.5 goals. Barcelona’s 2-1 first-leg win followed a 5-4 thriller in the league phase (January 2025), while Benfica’s last victory was a 3-0 result in 2021. Matches average 2.8 goals recently, with Barcelona unbeaten in their last four home games against Benfica (3W, 1D).

Key Players to Watch

FC Barcelona

• Robert Lewandowski (FWD): 18 goals in La Liga; first-leg scorer with clinical finishing.

• Raphinha (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists in UCL; first-leg hero.

• Wojciech Szczesny (GK): 6 clean sheets in La Liga; key in goal.

Benfica

• Kerem Aktürkoğlu (FWD): 6 goals in UCL; top scorer with flair.

• Vangelis Pavlidis (FWD): 10 goals in Liga Portugal; first-leg scorer.

• Anatoliy Trubin (GK): 7 clean sheets in Liga Portugal; under pressure.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Barcelona’s 4-3-3 (1.75 goals per game in UCL) relies on Lewandowski’s finishing and Raphinha’s creativity, likely holding 58% possession at home to protect their lead. Benfica’s 4-2-3-1 (2.25 goals per game in UCL) needs Aktürkoğlu and Pavlidis to exploit gaps, pushing forward with 47% possession away. Camp Nou’s 99,354 fans will back Barcelona, suggesting a high-intensity game with goals likely, though Barcelona’s defense may hold firm.

Prediction: FC Barcelona vs Benfica

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Over 2.5

Goalscorer - Robert Lewandowski

Result/both teams to score - Home/Yes