Fiorentina vs Lecce Predictions

Fiorentina will face Lecce at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on March 1, 2025, in a critical Serie A matchup, as Round 27 brings together two teams with contrasting ambitions. Fiorentina, under Raffaele Palladino, are projected to sit 6th with around 38 points from 26 matches as of February 26, 2025, following a 2-2 draw with AC Milan (Feb 23, 2025), aiming to solidify their European spot at home. Lecce, managed by Luca Gotti, are expected to be 18th with approximately 18 points, reeling from a 3-0 loss to Juventus (Feb 24, 2025), fighting to climb out of the relegation zone. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Fiorentina vs Lecce in this Serie A clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Fiorentina

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 26): 10W, 8D, 8L (38 points, 6th in Serie A)
Latest Result: 2-2 draw vs. AC Milan (Feb 23, 2025)
Home Form: 6W, 4D, 3L (18 goals scored, 12 conceded)

Fiorentina have been competitive this season, with their recent 2-2 draw against AC Milan extending an unbeaten run of four league games (2W, 2D, 0L) as of February 26, 2025. Projected at 38 points from 26 matches, their last home win—a 3-1 victory over Udinese (Feb 16, 2025)—underlines their strength at Franchi. At home, they’ve averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game, showcasing a balanced attack and defense that could overwhelm Lecce.

Lecce

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 26): 5W, 3D, 18L (18 points, 18th in Serie A)
Latest Result: 3-0 loss vs. Juventus (Feb 24, 2025)
Away Form: 2W, 1D, 10L (10 goals scored, 25 conceded)

Lecce have struggled in Serie A, with their recent 3-0 defeat to Juventus marking their third loss in four league games (1W, 0D, 3L) as of February 26, 2025. Projected at 18 points from 26 matches, their last away win—a 2-1 upset at Cagliari (Jan 19, 2025)—offers faint hope. On the road, they’ve averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game, exposing a frail defense that could falter against Fiorentina’s attack.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Fiorentina 13W, Lecce 4W, 7D (24 meetings since 1994)
Recent Meetings:

• Oct 20, 2024: Lecce 0-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)

• Feb 2, 2024: Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)

• Aug 27, 2023: Fiorentina 2-2 Lecce (Serie A)

Key Trend: Fiorentina are unbeaten in their last 3 home games against Lecce (2W, 1D); 3 of the last 5 H2Hs saw over 2.5 goals.

Fiorentina dominated their most recent clash, winning 2-0 in October 2024 at Via del Mare, with goals from Lucas Beltrán and Moise Kean. Lecce’s 3-2 upset in February 2024 shows they can compete, but Fiorentina’s home record against them is strong. Matches have averaged 2.4 goals in their last five meetings, suggesting a potentially lively contest.

Key Players to Watch

Fiorentina

• Moise Kean (FWD): 9 goals in 2024/25; Fiorentina’s top scorer and in-form striker.

• Lucas Beltrán (FWD): 6 goals, 3 assists; clinical finisher with flair.

• David de Gea (GK): 6 clean sheets; anchors a stingy defense.

Lecce

• Nikola Krstović (FWD): 5 goals in 2024/25; Lecce’s leading scorer and main threat.

• Patrick Dorgu (MID): 3 goals, 2 assists; dynamic young talent.

• Wladimiro Falcone (GK): 4 clean sheets; key to any resistance.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Fiorentina’s 4-3-3 (1.50 goals per game) thrives on Kean and Beltrán’s interplay, testing Lecce’s porous defense (1.81 goals conceded per game). Lecce’s 4-4-2 (0.92 goals per game) relies on Krstović’s finishing, but Fiorentina’s backline (1.15 goals conceded per game) should hold firm. Fiorentina’s Edoardo Bove (doubtful, injury) and Lecce’s Lameck Banda (out, suspension) may affect lineups, with Franchi’s 40,000 fans adding pressure on the visitors.

Prediction: Fiorentina vs Lecce

Our Prediction: Fiorentina to Win 2-0

TIP 2: Corner - Fiorentina to Win