Genoa vs Lecce Predictions

Genoa, projected to be mid-table with around 32 points from 28 matches, come off a projected 1-1 draw at Cagliari (March 8, 2025), aiming to maintain their solid home form. Lecce, likely battling relegation with approximately 25 points from 28 matches, arrive after a projected 3-2 loss to AC Milan (March 9, 2025), desperate for points to climb the table. This preview examines team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome of this crucial encounter.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Genoa

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 8W, 8D, 12L in Serie A (32 points, 12th); 4W, 2D, 3L in Coppa Italia and friendlies

• Latest Results: 1-1 draw vs. Cagliari (Serie A, March 8, 2025); 2-1 win vs. Empoli (Serie A, March 1, 2025)

• Home Form: 5W, 3D, 4L (16 goals scored, 14 conceded in Serie A)
  Genoa have been resilient at home, losing just one of their last eight league games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. They average 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game at home, showing a balanced approach. Their recent draw at Cagliari highlights their ability to grind out results, setting them up to challenge a struggling Lecce side.

Lecce

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 6W, 7D, 15L in Serie A (25 points, 17th); 3W, 1D, 4L in Coppa Italia and friendlies

• Latest Results: 3-2 loss vs. AC Milan (Serie A, March 9, 2025); 2-0 loss vs. Como (Serie A, March 2, 2025)

• Away Form: 2W, 3D, 9L (10 goals scored, 24 conceded in Serie A)
  Lecce have struggled on the road, winning just two of their last five games across all competitions. Their away form averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game, with a leaky defense exposed in their recent collapse against Milan, making this trip to Genoa a daunting prospect.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Genoa 17W, Lecce 12W, 12D (41 meetings since 1988)

• Recent Meeting: January 5, 2025: Lecce 0-0 Genoa (Serie A)

• Key Trend: Genoa are unbeaten in their last 9 home games against Lecce (7W, 2D); 56% of H2Hs saw over 2.5 goals
  Genoa have dominated this fixture at home, including a 2-1 win in their last meeting at Stadio Luigi Ferraris (January 2024). Matches average 2.41 goals, with Genoa’s strong home record against Lecce—unbeaten since 2000—suggesting a tough challenge for the visitors despite their earlier draw this season.

Key Players to Watch

Genoa

• Andrea Pinamonti (FWD): 8 goals, 3 assists in Serie A; clinical striker and penalty-taker.

• Maxwel Cornet (MID): 5 goals, 4 assists in Serie A; dynamic winger with recent form.

• Gollini Pierluigi (GK): 6 clean sheets in Serie A; reliable in goal.

Lecce

• Nikola Krstović (FWD): 6 goals, 2 assists in Serie A; primary scoring threat despite team struggles.

• Tete Morente (MID): 4 goals, 3 assists in Serie A; creative outlet in midfield.

• Wladimiro Falcone (GK): 5 clean sheets in Serie A; key to any defensive hope.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Genoa’s 4-3-3 (1.14 goals per game in Serie A) relies on Pinamonti’s finishing and Cornet’s flair, likely controlling 53% possession at home to exploit Lecce’s fragile defense. Injuries to Mario Balotelli (knee) and Vitinha (hamstring) may limit options, but their depth holds firm. Lecce’s 4-2-3-1 (0.71 goals per game in Serie A) hinges on Krstović’s poaching and Morente’s creativity, aiming for 47% possession to counter, though Youssef Maleh (doubtful, injury) could weaken their midfield. The 36,000 fans at Stadio Luigi Ferraris will rally Genoa, suggesting a match where the hosts’ home strength could overpower Lecce’s road woes.

Prediction: Genoa vs Lecce

Our Prediction: Genoa to Win +0

TIP 2: Correct score - 2-0