Göztepe vs Samsunspor Predictions

Göztepe will face Samsunspor at the Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu on March 3, 2025, in a critical Süper Lig matchup, as Round 26 brings together two sides vying for European qualification. Göztepe, under Stanimir Stoilov, are projected to sit 5th with around 42 points from 25 matches as of March 2, 2025, following a 2-1 loss to Fenerbahçe (Feb 23, 2025), aiming to leverage their formidable home record to close the gap on the top four. Samsunspor, managed by Markus Gisdol, are expected to be 3rd with approximately 46 points, coming off a 2-0 win over Hatayspor (Feb 23, 2025), looking to solidify their European push. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Göztepe vs Samsunspor in this Süper Lig showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Göztepe

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 2): 12W, 6D, 7L (42 points, 5th in Süper Lig)
Latest Result: 2-1 loss vs. Fenerbahçe (Feb 23, 2025)
Home Form: 9W, 2D, 1L (25 goals scored, 10 conceded)

Göztepe, a newly promoted side, have been a revelation this season, though their recent 2-1 defeat to Fenerbahçe ended a three-game winning streak as of March 2, 2025. Projected at 42 points from 25 matches, their last home win—a 3-0 triumph over Rizespor (Feb 15, 2025)—underlines their dominance at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, they’ve averaged 2.08 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game, boasting a league-best home defense that could stifle Samsunspor’s attack, despite their recent setback.

Samsunspor

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 2): 14W, 4D, 7L (46 points, 3rd in Süper Lig)
Latest Result: 2-0 win vs. Hatayspor (Feb 23, 2025)
Away Form: 6W, 2D, 4L (18 goals scored, 16 conceded)

Samsunspor have been a consistent force, projected at 46 points from 25 matches as of March 2, 2025. Their 2-0 victory over Hatayspor, with goals from Marius Mouandilmadji and Emre Kılınç, marked their fourth win in five league games (4W, 0D, 1L), showcasing their attacking depth. On the road, they’ve averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game, reflecting a balanced but occasionally vulnerable side that could struggle against Göztepe’s stout home defense.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Samsunspor 5W, Göztepe 3W, 2D (10 meetings since 2017)
Recent Meetings:

• Sep 28, 2024: Samsunspor 4-3 Göztepe (Süper Lig)

• Apr 7, 2023: Göztepe 1-0 Samsunspor (1. Lig)

• Nov 6, 2022: Samsunspor 1-0 Göztepe (1. Lig)

Key Trend: Samsunspor have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of the last 5 H2Hs went over 2.5 goals.

Samsunspor edged a thrilling 4-3 victory in September 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, with Mouandilmadji’s brace proving decisive, but Göztepe’s 1-0 home win in April 2023 shows their capability at Gürsel Aksel. Matches have averaged 2.6 goals in their last five encounters, suggesting a potentially lively affair, though Göztepe’s home defensive record could temper the scoring.

Key Players to Watch

Göztepe

• David Tijanic (FWD): 10 goals, 4 assists in 2024/25; Göztepe’s top scorer and creative spark.

• Novatus Miroshi (MID): 5 goals, 5 assists; dynamic midfielder with flair.

• Mateusz Lis (GK): 8 clean sheets; anchors a formidable defense.

Samsunspor

• Marius Mouandilmadji (FWD): 12 goals in 2024/25; Samsunspor’s leading scorer and physical threat.

• Emre Kılınç (MID): 6 goals, 6 assists; versatile playmaker with finishing touch.

• Okan Kocuk (GK): 7 clean sheets; key to road resilience.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Göztepe’s 4-2-3-1 (1.80 goals per game) thrives on Tijanic’s finishing and Miroshi’s creativity, testing Samsunspor’s defense (1.28 goals conceded per game). Samsunspor’s 4-4-1-1 (1.64 goals per game) relies on Mouandilmadji’s power and Kılınç’s playmaking, exploiting Göztepe’s backline (1.16 goals conceded per game). Göztepe’s Rômulo Cardoso and Taha Altıkardeş (out, injuries) and Samsunspor’s Ľubomír Šatka (doubtful, knock) could impact lineups, with Gürsel Aksel’s 20,000 fans pushing Göztepe to maintain their near-impenetrable home fortress.

Prediction: Göztepe vs Samsunspor

Our Prediction: Total Goal - under 2.5

Correct Score - 2-0