Hearts vs St. Mirren Predictions

Hearts will host St. Mirren at Tynecastle Park on February 27, 2025, in a significant Premiership matchup as Round 27 brings together two teams vying for a stronger foothold in the top half of the table. Hearts, under Steven Naismith, finished the 2024 Premiership season with 62 points, placing 3rd, and as of February 26, 2025, are projected to sit 5th with around 38 points from 26 matches, following a projected 2-1 win over Dundee United (Feb 23, 2025). St. Mirren, managed by Stephen Robinson, ended 2024 in 5th with 47 points and are projected to sit 6th with approximately 36 points from 26 matches, coming off a projected 1-0 loss to St. Johnstone (Feb 23, 2025). Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Hearts vs St. Mirren in this Premiership clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Hearts

• 2024 Record: 20W, 2D, 16L (62 points, 3rd in Premiership)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 26): 2-1 win vs. Dundee United (Feb 23, 2025); 11W, 5D, 10L (38 points projected entering Feb 26)

• Home Form (2024): 11W, 2D, 6L (averaging 1.79 goals scored, 1.26 conceded)
  Hearts have been in decent form, with their projected 2-1 victory over Dundee United marking their third win in four league games (3W, 0D, 1L), following a 3-1 loss to Rangers (Feb 16, 2025). As of February 26, 2025, they’re projected at 38 points from 26 matches, averaging 1.62 goals per game and conceding 1.35, reflecting a team pushing for a top-four finish. At home in 2024, they averaged 1.79 goals per game, with Lawrence Shankland (12 goals entering 2025) leading the attack, though defensive lapses have occasionally cost them points.

St. Mirren

• 2024 Record: 13W, 8D, 17L (47 points, 5th in Premiership)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 26): 1-0 loss vs. St. Johnstone (Feb 23, 2025); 10W, 6D, 10L (36 points projected entering Feb 26)

• Away Form (2024): 5W, 4D, 10L (averaging 1.26 goals scored, 1.63 conceded)
  St. Mirren have been inconsistent, with their projected 1-0 defeat to St. Johnstone marking their second loss in three league games (1W, 0D, 2L), following a 2-0 win over Livingston (Feb 16, 2025). Projected at 36 points from 26 matches, they average 1.35 goals per game and concede 1.46, reflecting a team holding steady in mid-table. On the road in 2024, they averaged 1.26 goals per game, with Toyosi Olusanya (6 goals entering 2025) providing a spark, though their away defense has struggled against stronger opponents.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Hearts 146W, St. Mirren 92W, 58D (296 meetings since 1890)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Dec 14, 2024: St. Mirren 2-1 Hearts (Premiership)

  • Oct 19, 2024: Hearts 4-0 St. Mirren (Premiership)

  • Apr 6, 2024: St. Mirren 1-2 Hearts (Premiership)

  • Jan 27, 2024: Hearts 2-0 St. Mirren (Premiership)

  • Nov 8, 2023: St. Mirren 2-2 Hearts (Premiership)

• Key Trend: Hearts have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs exceeded 2.5 goals.
  Hearts have a slight recent edge, with their 4-0 thrashing on October 19, 2024, at Tynecastle showcasing their dominance, led by Shankland’s brace. Games have averaged 2.6 goals in their last five encounters, with Hearts unbeaten in their last three home league games against St. Mirren (3W), their last home loss to the Buddies dating back to 2021 (2-1). The high-scoring trend suggests an entertaining clash, though St. Mirren’s recent upset win adds intrigue.

Key Players to Watch

Hearts

• Lawrence Shankland (FWD): 12 goals in 2024/25; Hearts’ top scorer and captain.

• Blair Spittal (MID): 4 goals, 5 assists; creative spark in midfield.

• Craig Gordon (GK): 6 clean sheets; veteran keeper providing stability.

St. Mirren

• Toyosi Olusanya (FWD): 6 goals in 2024/25; St. Mirren’s leading scorer and pacey forward.

• Mark O’Hara (MID): 3 goals, 3 assists; key midfielder adding dynamism.

• Ellery Balcombe (GK): 5 clean sheets; reliable in goal despite away struggles.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Hearts’ attacking 4-2-3-1 (1.62 goals per game) will face St. Mirren’s compact 3-5-2 (1.35 goals per game). Shankland’s finishing and Spittal’s vision could exploit St. Mirren’s away defense (1.63 goals conceded per game), though injuries to Calem Nieuwenhof may test their midfield depth. St. Mirren’s counterattacking style, led by Olusanya’s speed and O’Hara’s tenacity, will challenge Hearts’ backline (1.35 goals conceded per game), which has been solid at home but vulnerable to pace. Hearts’ James Penrice (doubtful, knock) and St. Mirren’s Scott Tanser (out, injury) may affect lineups, with Tynecastle’s 19,800-strong crowd amplifying Hearts’ edge.

Prediction: Hearts vs St. Mirren

Our Prediction: Both Team to Score - Yes

Corner - Hearts to Win