Liverpool vs Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Liverpool will face Paris Saint-Germain at Anfield on March 12, 2025, in a Champions League Round of 16 second-leg matchup, holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg (March 5, 2025). Liverpool, likely 1st in the Premier League with around 65 points from 27 matches, come off a 3-1 league win over Newcastle (March 8, 2025), aiming to secure their quarter-final spot. PSG, expected 1st in Ligue 1 with about 60 points from 25 matches, arrive after a 4-1 league win over Lille (March 8, 2025), needing to overturn the deficit. This preview covers team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to predict the outcome.

Team Form & Recent Performances

Liverpool

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 20W, 5D, 2L in Premier League (65 points, 1st); 6W, 1D, 1L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Newcastle (Premier League, March 8, 2025); 1-0 win vs. PSG (UCL, March 5, 2025)

• Home Form: 11W, 2D, 0L (33 goals scored, 8 conceded in Premier League); 4W in UCL home games Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season, winning their last six games at Anfield, including a 1-0 first-leg victory over PSG (goal from Mohamed Salah). They average 2.54 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game at home in the Premier League, facing a PSG side they’ve now beaten twice this season.

Paris Saint-Germain

• 2024/25 Record (Projected): 19W, 3D, 3L in Ligue 1 (60 points, 1st); 5W, 1D, 3L in UCL League Phase

• Latest Result: 4-1 win vs. Lille (Ligue 1, March 8, 2025)

• Away Form: 9W, 2D, 2L (26 goals scored, 12 conceded in Ligue 1); 2W in UCL away games PSG have won five straight games, including a 4-1 victory over Lille, but lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool last week. Away in the Champions League, they average 2.00 goals scored but 2.50 conceded per game, needing at least a 1-0 win to force extra time against Liverpool’s formidable defense.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Liverpool 3W, PSG 1W, 0D (4 meetings since 2018)

• Recent Meeting:
  March 5, 2025: PSG 0-1 Liverpool (Champions League, Round of 16, First Leg)

• Key Trend: Liverpool have won 3 of the last 4 H2Hs; 50% of meetings saw under 2.5 goals. Liverpool’s 1-0 first-leg win followed a 3-2 home victory in the 2018/19 group stage, while PSG’s lone win was a 2-1 result in Paris that year. Matches average 2.25 goals, with Liverpool unbeaten in their last two home games against PSG (2W), suggesting a tough task for the visitors.

Key Players to Watch

Liverpool

• Mohamed Salah (FWD): 15 goals, 10 assists in Premier League; first-leg scorer.

• Cody Gakpo (FWD): 5 goals in UCL; key attacker.

• Alisson Becker (GK): 8 clean sheets in Premier League; vital in net.

Paris Saint-Germain

• Ousmane Dembélé (FWD): 12 goals in Ligue 1; main scoring threat.

• Vitinha (MID): 4 goals, 5 assists in UCL; midfield creator.

• Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK): 7 clean sheets in Ligue 1; under pressure.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 (2.25 goals per game in UCL) relies on Salah’s finishing and Gakpo’s flair, likely controlling play with 56% possession at home to protect their lead. PSG’s 4-3-3 (1.88 goals per game in UCL) needs Dembélé and Vitinha to break through, pushing forward with 49% possession away. Anfield’s 54,074 fans will roar Liverpool on, suggesting a tight game with Liverpool’s defense (one goal conceded in eight UCL games) likely to hold firm despite PSG’s attacking intent.

Prediction: Liverpool vs Paris Saint-Germain

Our Prediction: Asian Handicap - Paris Saint Germain to Win +0.25

Corner - Paris Saint Germain to Win