Athletic Bilbao vs Girona Prediction & Betting Tips - La Liga 23 September 2025

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Team Form & Recent Performances
Athletic Bilbao
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2025/26 Record: 3W, 0D, 2L in La Liga (9 points, 4th); 2024/25 La Liga 5th with 18W, 8D, 8L
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Latest Result: Lost 2-0 at Valencia (September 20, 2025), lost 2-0 vs. Arsenal (Champions League, September 17, 2025)
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Home Form: 2W, 0D, 0L in 2 La Liga home games (5 goals scored, 1 conceded)
Athletic Bilbao are in a rough patch, losing three consecutive games across competitions after a strong start. Their 2-0 defeat at Valencia highlighted attacking struggles, managing only 45% possession and 0.8 expected goals (xG). At San Mamés, they remain unbeaten this season, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Over their last five games (2W, 0D, 3L), they’ve scored 6 goals and conceded 6. Injuries to Yuri Berchiche (muscle), Nico Williams (foot), and Beñat Prados (thigh) are significant concerns, testing their depth. Their 55% possession and 4.8 shots on target per game show intent, but recent form suggests vulnerabilities.
Girona
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2025/26 Record: 0W, 1D, 4L in La Liga (1 point, 20th); 2024/25 La Liga 3rd with 21W, 7D, 8L
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Latest Result: Lost 4-0 vs. Levante (September 21, 2025), drew 1-1 at Celta Vigo (September 14, 2025)
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Away Form: 0W, 0D, 2L in 2 La Liga away games (1 goal scored, 6 conceded)
Girona are in crisis, winless and rooted to the bottom of La Liga with just one point. Their 4-0 loss to Levante exposed defensive frailties, conceding 15 goals in five games (3.0 per game). Their 1-1 draw at Celta Vigo was a rare positive, but away form is dire, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game. Over their last five games (0W, 1D, 4L), they’ve scored 2 goals and conceded 15. Injuries to Bryan Gil (knee), Yangel Herrera (head, doubtful), and Viktor Tsygankov (thigh, doubtful) further weaken their squad. Their 49% possession and 3.5 shots on target per game lack cutting edge.
Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context
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Overall Record: Athletic Bilbao lead with 5 wins to Girona’s 4, 1 draw in 10 La Liga matches
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Recent Meeting: February 8, 2025—Girona 1-2 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
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Key Trend: Athletic won 2 of the last 3 H2Hs; 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.9 goals per game; Athletic won 4 of 5 home H2Hs, including 3-0 last season
Athletic Bilbao’s 2-1 win at Girona in February 2025, with goals from Oihan Sancet and Álex Berenguer, continued their recent dominance. Girona’s sole recent victory was a 2-1 home win last season. Athletic have won 4 of their last 5 home H2Hs at San Mamés, including a 3-0 rout in 2024. The trend of under 2.5 goals in 3 of the last 5 H2Hs suggests low-scoring affairs, with Athletic averaging 1.8 goals to Girona’s 1.2.
Key Players to Watch
Athletic Bilbao
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Oihan Sancet (FWD): 3 goals in La Liga. His clinical finishing is vital despite recent knee concerns.
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Álex Berenguer (FWD): 2 goals, 1 assist in La Liga. A threat on the wing with his pace and crossing.
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Unai Simón (GK): 3 clean sheets in La Liga, 72% save rate. A reliable presence in goal.
Girona
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Yáser Asprilla (FWD): 1 goal in La Liga. His pace offers hope on counterattacks.
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Azzedine Ounahi (MID): 1 assist in La Liga. Provides midfield energy and creativity.
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Paulo Gazzaniga (GK): 1 clean sheet in La Liga, 68% save rate. Key to keeping the scoreline tight.
Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics
Athletic Bilbao’s 4-2-3-1, led by Ernesto Valverde, relies on Sancet’s finishing and Berenguer’s width, with Dani García and Ander Herrera in midfield, averaging 55% possession and 4.8 shots on target per game. Despite injuries, they’ll target Girona’s leaky defense (3.0 goals conceded per game) with high pressing, but their recent three-game losing streak suggests fatigue. Girona’s 4-3-3, under Míchel, uses Asprilla’s pace and Ounahi’s drive, with Eric García anchoring defense, averaging 49% possession and 3.5 shots on target. Their injury-hit squad will focus on counterattacks, exploiting Athletic’s high line, but conceding 15 goals in five games is a major concern. The 53,289-capacity San Mamés will create an intense atmosphere, boosting Athletic’s press. Web buzz favors Athletic at 1.46 odds, with under 2.5 goals at 1.57, citing their home dominance and Girona’s defensive collapse.

Possession
