Milan vs Lazio Predictions

Milan will face Lazio at the San Siro on March 3, 2025, in a crucial Serie A matchup, as Round 27 brings together two sides battling for a top-four finish. Milan, under Paulo Fonseca, are projected to sit 6th with around 42 points from 26 matches as of March 1, 2025, following a 2-1 loss to Bologna (Feb 26, 2025), aiming to rebound at home to secure a Champions League spot. Lazio, managed by Marco Baroni, are expected to be 4th with approximately 46 points, buoyed by a 2-0 win over Torino (Feb 23, 2025), looking to maintain their strong form. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Milan vs Lazio in this Serie A clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Milan

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 1): 12W, 6D, 8L (42 points, 6th in Serie A)
Latest Result: 2-1 loss vs. Bologna (Feb 26, 2025)
Home Form: 7W, 3D, 3L (24 goals scored, 14 conceded)

Milan have been inconsistent this season, with their recent 2-1 defeat to Bologna marking their second loss in three league games (1W, 0D, 2L) as of March 1, 2025. Projected at 42 points from 26 matches, their last home win—a 3-1 triumph over Parma (Feb 15, 2025)—shows their potential at the San Siro. At home, they’ve averaged 1.85 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game, reflecting a potent attack but a defense that has occasionally faltered, which could be tested by Lazio’s in-form forwards.

Lazio

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 1): 14W, 4D, 8L (46 points, 4th in Serie A)
Latest Result: 2-0 win vs. Torino (Feb 23, 2025)
Away Form: 6W, 2D, 5L (18 goals scored, 16 conceded)

Lazio have been a revelation this season, projected at 46 points from 26 matches as of March 1, 2025. Their 2-0 victory over Torino, with goals from Mattia Zaccagni and Valentín Castellanos, marked their third win in four league games (3W, 0D, 1L), showcasing their attacking depth. On the road, they’ve averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game, balancing offensive output with resilience, though facing Milan’s home crowd could pose a challenge.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Milan 30W, Lazio 15W, 17D (62 meetings since 1998)
Recent Meetings:

• Aug 31, 2024: Lazio 2-2 Milan (Serie A)

• Mar 1, 2024: Lazio 0-1 Milan (Serie A)

• Sep 30, 2023: Milan 2-0 Lazio (Serie A)

Key Trend: Milan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of the last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.

Milan hold a strong recent edge, with their 1-0 win in March 2024 at Stadio Olimpico—thanks to Noah Okafor’s late strike—highlighting their dominance. The August 2024 clash ended in a 2-2 draw, showing Lazio’s ability to compete, but Milan have won four of the last five overall. Matches have averaged 2.2 goals in their last five encounters, suggesting a potentially tight contest at the San Siro.

Key Players to Watch

Milan

• Rafael Leão (FWD): 10 goals, 6 assists in 2024/25; Milan’s top scorer and match-winner.

• Tijjani Reijnders (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists; creative force in midfield.

• Mike Maignan (GK): 7 clean sheets; key to defensive solidity.

Lazio

• Mattia Zaccagni (FWD): 9 goals, 4 assists in 2024/25; Lazio’s leading scorer and dynamic winger.

• Valentín Castellanos (FWD): 7 goals; clinical finisher with aerial prowess.

• Ivan Provedel (GK): 6 clean sheets; anchors a resilient defense.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Milan’s 4-2-3-1 (1.73 goals per game) thrives on Leão’s flair and Reijnders’ playmaking, testing Lazio’s defense (1.19 goals conceded per game). Lazio’s 4-3-3 (1.65 goals per game) relies on Zaccagni’s pace and Castellanos’ finishing, exploiting Milan’s backline (1.23 goals conceded per game). Milan’s Alessandro Florenzi (out, injury) and Lazio’s Manuel Lazzari (doubtful, knock) could impact lineups, with San Siro’s 75,000 fans adding pressure on the visitors.

Prediction: Milan vs Lazio

Our Prediction: Milan to Win

TIP 2: Total Goal - Under 3