Molde vs Legia Warszawa Predictions

Molde will face Legia Warszawa at the Aker Stadion on March 6, 2025, in a crucial Europa Conference League Round of 16 first-leg matchup, pitting Erling Moe’s Blue Rascals against Gonçalo Feio’s Wojskowi with the tie’s momentum at stake. Molde, projected to sit 4th in the Eliteserien preseason standings with their season starting in April, are coming off a 2-1 friendly win over Brann (Feb 28, 2025), having finished 14th in the UECL league phase with 12 points and advanced past Shamrock Rovers in the playoff round (4-2 aggregate), aiming to leverage their home strength. Legia Warszawa, expected to be 3rd in the Ekstraklasa with approximately 40 points from 23 matches, arrive after a 3-1 league win over Radomiak Radom (March 2, 2025), having placed 11th in the league phase with 13 points, seeking to upset Molde on the road. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Molde vs Legia Warszawa in this Europa Conference League clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Molde

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 5): 4W, 0D, 4L in UECL League Phase (12 points, 14th); Preseason Friendlies: 3W, 1D, 1L since January
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Brann (Friendly, Feb 28, 2025)
Home Form (UECL): 3W, 0D, 1L (9 goals scored, 4 conceded)

Molde have been building momentum in preseason, with their recent 2-1 friendly win over Brann marking their third victory in four games (3W, 0D, 1L) as of March 5, 2025. In the UECL league phase, they secured 12 points (4W, 0D, 4L), finishing 14th, with wins over Gent (3-0) and Larne (4-1), though losses to Vitória Guimarães (1-2) and Chelsea (0-3) showed defensive frailties. Their playoff triumph over Shamrock Rovers (1-1 away, 3-1 home) earned this matchup. At home in UECL play, they’ve averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game, with a 3-0 win over Gent highlighting their attacking flair, led by Magnus Wolff Eikrem (4 UECL goals).

Legia Warszawa

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 5): 4W, 1D, 3L in UECL League Phase (13 points, 11th); 12W, 4D, 7L in Ekstraklasa (40 points, 3rd)
Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa, March 2, 2025)
Away Form (UECL): 2W, 1D, 1L (7 goals scored, 6 conceded)

Legia Warszawa have been in solid form, with their recent 3-1 league win over Radomiak Radom marking their fourth victory in five games across all competitions (4W, 0D, 1L) as of March 5, 2025. In the UECL league phase, they earned 13 points (4W, 1D, 3L), finishing 11th, with wins over Dinamo Minsk (2-0) and Omonia (3-1), though losses to Betis (0-1) and Lugano (2-3) exposed vulnerabilities. On the road in UECL play, they’ve averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game, with Marc Gual (5 UECL goals) leading the charge, though defensive inconsistency remains a concern.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Molde 2W, Legia Warszawa 0W, 0D (2 meetings in 2024)
Recent Meetings (UECL):

• Feb 22, 2024: Legia Warszawa 0-3 Molde (Knockout Playoff, 2nd Leg)

• Feb 15, 2024: Molde 3-2 Legia Warszawa (Knockout Playoff, 1st Leg)

Key Trend: Molde have won both prior meetings; both matches went over 2.5 goals.

Molde dominated their two encounters in the 2024 UECL knockout playoffs, winning 3-2 at home and 3-0 away, with Fredrik Gulbrandsen and Eikrem scoring key goals. Matches have averaged 4.0 goals across these meetings, suggesting a high-scoring trend, with Molde’s home attacking prowess (5 goals in 2 H2Hs) likely to challenge Legia’s inconsistent away defense (5 goals conceded in 2 H2Hs).

Key Players to Watch

Molde

• Magnus Wolff Eikrem (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists in 2024 Eliteserien; 4 UECL goals; Molde’s creative maestro and clutch scorer.

• Fredrik Gulbrandsen (FWD): 5 goals in 2024 Eliteserien; 3 UECL goals; physical striker with a history of punishing Legia.

• Oliver Petersen (GK): 6 clean sheets across competitions; key to Molde’s defensive hopes.

Legia Warszawa

• Marc Gual (FWD): 8 goals, 3 assists in Ekstraklasa; 5 UECL goals; Legia’s top scorer with finishing flair.

• Josué Pesqueira (MID): 5 goals, 6 assists in Ekstraklasa; 2 UECL goals; veteran playmaker driving the attack.

• Tobiasz Kacper (GK): 5 clean sheets across competitions; vital despite defensive lapses.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Molde’s 4-3-3 (1.63 goals per game in UECL) thrives on Eikrem’s vision and Gulbrandsen’s finishing, exploiting Legia’s shaky away defense (1.50 goals conceded per game in UECL away games), with wingers like Mats Møller Dæhli adding pace, though injuries to Veton Berisha (out, muscle) and Emil Breivik (doubtful, knee) could affect depth. Legia’s 4-2-3-1 (1.75 goals per game in UECL) relies on Gual’s movement and Josué’s creativity, using their counter-attacking style (avg. 48% possession away) to disrupt Molde’s build-up (avg. 54% at home). Legia’s Patryk Kun (out, thigh) is a concern, with Rúben Vinagre stepping up (2 UECL goals). Aker Stadion’s 11,000 fans will rally Molde, but Legia’s attacking quality could keep it competitive.

Prediction: Molde vs Legia Warszawa

Our Prediction: Corner - Molde to Win

TIP 2: Total Goal - Over 2