Osasuna vs Valencia Predictions

Osasuna will face Valencia at the Estadio El Sadar on March 3, 2025, in a crucial La Liga matchup, as Round 27 brings together two teams with differing fortunes. Osasuna, under Vicente Moreno, are projected to sit 9th with around 35 points from 26 matches as of March 1, 2025, following a 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo (Feb 23, 2025), aiming to capitalize on their home advantage to climb the standings. Valencia, managed by Carlos Corberán, are expected to be 18th with approximately 22 points, coming off a 3-0 defeat to Atlético Madrid (Feb 23, 2025), desperate to halt their slide toward relegation. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Osasuna vs Valencia in this La Liga clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Osasuna

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 1): 10W, 5D, 11L (35 points, 9th in La Liga)
Latest Result: 1-0 loss vs. Celta Vigo (Feb 23, 2025)
Home Form: 6W, 3D, 4L (20 goals scored, 15 conceded)

Osasuna have had an up-and-down season, with their recent 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo marking their second defeat in four league games (1W, 1D, 2L) as of March 1, 2025. Projected at 35 points from 26 matches, their last home win—a 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad (Feb 15, 2025)—shows their potential at El Sadar. At home, they’ve averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game, reflecting a balanced but occasionally vulnerable side that could exploit Valencia’s weaknesses with the right spark.

Valencia

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 1): 6W, 4D, 16L (22 points, 18th in La Liga)
Latest Result: 3-0 loss vs. Atlético Madrid (Feb 23, 2025)
Away Form: 2W, 2D, 9L (12 goals scored, 25 conceded)

Valencia have struggled mightily, projected at 22 points from 26 matches as of March 1, 2025. Their 3-0 defeat to Atlético Madrid extended a poor run of three losses in four league games (1W, 0D, 3L), highlighting their relegation battle. On the road, they’ve averaged 0.92 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game, exposing a frail attack and porous defense that could crumble under El Sadar’s intense atmosphere.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Osasuna 12W, Valencia 25W, 15D (52 meetings since 1980)
Recent Meetings:

• Sep 24, 2024: Valencia 0-0 Osasuna (La Liga)

• Apr 15, 2024: Osasuna 0-1 Valencia (La Liga)

• Aug 27, 2023: Valencia 1-2 Osasuna (La Liga)

Key Trend: Valencia have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of the last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.

Valencia have historically held the edge, with their 1-0 win in April 2024 at El Sadar—courtesy of André Almeida’s goal—showing their resilience. Osasuna’s 2-1 victory in August 2023 at Mestalla proves they can upset Valencia, but recent matches have averaged 1.8 goals in the last five encounters, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair could unfold.

Key Players to Watch

Osasuna

• Ante Budimir (FWD): 10 goals in 2024/25; Osasuna’s top scorer and aerial threat.

• Bryan Zaragoza (MID): 5 goals, 5 assists; dynamic winger with flair.

• Sergio Herrera (GK): 6 clean sheets; key to defensive hopes.

Valencia

• Hugo Duro (FWD): 7 goals in 2024/25; Valencia’s leading scorer and primary outlet.

• Pepelu (MID): 3 goals, 3 assists; creative spark in midfield.

• Giorgi Mamardashvili (GK): 5 clean sheets; vital for any resistance.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Osasuna’s 4-3-3 (1.46 goals per game) relies on Budimir’s finishing and Zaragoza’s pace to break down Valencia’s defense (1.65 goals conceded per game). Valencia’s 4-4-2 (1.23 goals per game) hinges on Duro’s hold-up play, but Osasuna’s high press could exploit their shaky backline (1.92 goals conceded away). Osasuna’s Jesús Areso (doubtful, knock) and Valencia’s Thierry Correia (out, injury) may affect lineups, with El Sadar’s 19,800 fans amplifying the pressure on the visitors.

Prediction: Osasuna vs Valencia

Our Prediction: Osasuna to Win 2-0

TIP 2: Total goal - Over 1.5