Team Form & Recent Performances

Palmeiras

• 2025 Record: 15W, 4D, 3L in Serie A (49 points, 3rd); 2024 Serie A 1st with 23W, 10D, 5L

• Latest Result: Won 3-1 vs. River Plate (September 24, 2025, Copa Libertadores), lost 1-0 at Bahia (September 20, 2025)

• Home Form: 8W, 2D, 1L in 11 Serie A home games (22 goals scored, 8 conceded)

Palmeiras are in title contention, despite a 1-0 loss at Bahia ending a four-game winning streak, where they had 54% possession but only 0.8 expected goals (xG), per web ID 0. Their 3-1 Copa Libertadores win over River Plate (5-2 aggregate) showcased their attacking flair, with Facundo Torres scoring, per web ID 19. At Allianz Parque, they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game. Over their last five games (4W, 0D, 1L), they’ve scored 12 goals and conceded 2. Injuries to Micael, Mayke, Marcos Rocha, Bruno Rodrigues, and Raphael Veiga (all doubtful) are concerns, per web ID 20. Their 58% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game reflect dominance, per web ID 2.

Vasco da Gama

• 2025 Record: 7W, 6D, 11L in Serie A (27 points, 13th); 2024 Serie A 9th with 10W, 7D, 11L

• Latest Result: Drew 1-1 vs. Cruzeiro (September 27, 2025), won 3-1 vs. Bahia (September 20, 2025)

• Away Form: 3W, 2D, 7L in 12 Serie A away games (12 goals scored, 20 conceded)

Vasco da Gama are mid-table, showing resilience with a 10-game unbeaten run earlier but struggling away. Their 1-1 draw against Cruzeiro, with 49% possession and a Philippe Coutinho goal, was solid, per web ID 6. Their 3-1 win over Bahia highlighted attacking potential. Away, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded per game, per web ID 13. Over their last five games (2W, 2D, 1L), they’ve scored 7 goals and conceded 6, per web ID 8. Injuries to Adson (broken leg), Mateus Carvalho (knee), Alex Teixeira (virus), Dimitri Payet (knee), Mauricio Lemos (bone), David (cruciate ligament), and Guilherme Estrella (knee) deplete their squad, per web IDs 7, 9. Their 48% possession and 3.5 shots on target per game indicate a pragmatic approach, per web ID 17.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Palmeiras lead with 18 wins to Vasco’s 8, 11 draws in 37 matches

• Recent Meeting: May 4, 2025—Vasco da Gama 0-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)

• Key Trend: Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs; 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.83 goals per game; Palmeiras won 3 of 5 home H2Hs, per web IDs 2, 5, 19

Palmeiras’ 1-0 win in May 2025, with José López scoring, continued their dominance, per web ID 2. Vasco’s last win over Palmeiras was in 2015, per web ID 20. Both teams scored in only 1 of the last 5 H2Hs, with Palmeiras averaging 1.6 goals to Vasco’s 0.4, per web ID 19. Palmeiras’ home strength (8W in 11) meets Vasco’s away struggles (3W in 12), setting up a one-sided affair, per web ID 13.

Key Players to Watch

Palmeiras

• Facundo Torres (FWD): 2 goals in Serie A; scored in Copa Libertadores. Likely to have a shot on target at -127, per web ID 2

• José López (FWD): 2 goals in Serie A; scored in H2H. A clinical finisher, per web ID 19

• Weverton (GK): 5 clean sheets in Serie A, 70% save rate. Key against Vasco’s attack, per web ID 19

Vasco da Gama

• Pablo Vegetti (FWD): 4 goals in Serie A. Scored vs. Bahia, top scorer at +460 to score first, per web IDs 7, 17

• Philippe Coutinho (MID): 1 goal in Serie A; scored vs. Cruzeiro. Creative spark, per web ID 6

• Léo Jardim (GK): 3 clean sheets in Serie A, 68% save rate. Vital away, per web ID 9

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Palmeiras’ 4-4-2, under Abel Ferreira, relies on Torres and López’s finishing, with Richard Ríos and Aníbal Moreno in midfield, averaging 58% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game, per web ID 19. Without Veiga and others doubtful, they’ll press high, targeting Vasco’s 1.67 goals conceded away, with their 0.73 conceded at home a strength, per web ID 0. Vasco’s 4-3-3, led by Felipe Loureiro, uses Vegetti’s hold-up and Coutinho’s flair, with Hugo Moura anchoring, averaging 48% possession and 3.5 shots on target, per web ID 17. Injuries force reliance on Nuno Moreira, countering to exploit Palmeiras’ high line, but their depleted squad and 7 away losses are concerns, per web ID 9. Allianz Parque’s 43,600 fans will amplify Palmeiras’ intensity. Web buzz favors Palmeiras at 1.40 odds, with BTTS No at 1.65, citing their H2H dominance and Vasco’s injury crisis