Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool Predictions

Paris Saint-Germain will face Liverpool at the Parc des Princes on March 6, 2025, in a critical Champions League Round of 16 first-leg matchup, pitting Luis Enrique’s Parisians against Arne Slot’s Reds with the tie’s momentum at stake. PSG, projected to sit 1st in Ligue 1 with around 58 points from 25 matches as of March 3, 2025, are coming off a 2-0 league win over Lens (March 2, 2025), having finished 5th in the UCL league phase with 16 points, and aim to assert their home dominance. Liverpool, expected to be 2nd in the Premier League with approximately 50 points from 19 matches, arrive after a 3-1 league win over Manchester United (March 2, 2025), having placed 3rd in the league phase with 18 points, seeking to leverage their attacking prowess. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool in this Champions League showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Paris Saint-Germain

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 5W, 1D, 2L in UCL League Phase (16 points, 5th); 19W, 1D, 5L in Ligue 1 (58 points, 1st)
Latest Result: 2-0 win vs. Lens (Ligue 1, March 2, 2025)
Home Form (UCL): 3W, 0D, 1L (10 goals scored, 4 conceded)

PSG have been in scintillating form, with their recent 2-0 league win over Lens marking their sixth victory in seven games across all competitions (6W, 0D, 1L) as of March 3, 2025. In the UCL league phase, they secured 16 points (5W, 1D, 2L), finishing 5th, with standout wins over Bayern Munich (3-1) and Salzburg (4-0), though losses to Arsenal (0-2) and Lille (1-2) exposed vulnerabilities. At home in UCL play, they’ve averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game, with a 3-1 triumph over Bayern showcasing their attacking depth, led by Ousmane Dembélé (5 UCL goals), though defensive lapses remain a concern.

Liverpool

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 3): 6W, 0D, 2L in UCL League Phase (18 points, 3rd); 16W, 2D, 7L in Premier League (50 points, 2nd)
Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Manchester United (Premier League, March 2, 2025)
Away Form (UCL): 3W, 0D, 1L (8 goals scored, 3 conceded)

Liverpool have been a force under Slot, with their recent 3-1 league win over Manchester United marking their fifth victory in six games across all competitions (5W, 0D, 1L) as of March 3, 2025. In the UCL league phase, they amassed 18 points (6W, 0D, 2L), finishing 3rd, with wins over Real Madrid (2-0) and PSG (2-0), though a loss to Bayer Leverkusen (0-2) was a setback. On the road in UCL play, they’ve averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game, with a 3-0 win at Leipzig highlighting their attacking flair, led by Cody Gakpo (4 UCL goals), despite injuries to Trent Alexander-Arnold and Joe Gomez.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Liverpool 3W, PSG 2W, 0D (5 meetings since 1970)
Recent Meetings (UCL):

• Nov 28, 2024: Liverpool 2-0 PSG (League Phase)

• Nov 28, 2018: PSG 2-1 Liverpool (Group Stage)

• Sep 18, 2018: Liverpool 3-2 PSG (Group Stage)

Key Trend: Liverpool have won 2 of the last 3 UCL meetings; 4 of the last 5 H2Hs saw over 2.5 goals.

Liverpool secured a 2-0 win in the league phase on November 28, 2024, at Anfield, with Gakpo and Mohamed Salah overpowering PSG’s defense, though PSG’s 2-1 victory in November 2018 at Parc des Princes shows their home edge. Matches have averaged 3.2 goals in their last five UCL encounters, with both teams scoring in four, suggesting a high-intensity, potentially high-scoring battle, though PSG’s recent defensive solidity (1 clean sheet in last 5 across competitions) could tighten the contest.

Key Players to Watch

Paris Saint-Germain

• Ousmane Dembélé (FWD): 10 goals, 8 assists in Ligue 1; 5 UCL goals; PSG’s dynamic winger with pace and precision.

• Vitinha (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists in Ligue 1; 2 UCL goals; creative hub in midfield.

• Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK): 9 clean sheets across competitions; key to PSG’s defensive hopes.

Liverpool

• Cody Gakpo (FWD): 9 goals, 4 assists in Premier League; 4 UCL goals; in-form striker thriving under Slot.

• Mohamed Salah (FWD): 12 goals, 10 assists in Premier League; 3 UCL goals; Liverpool’s talisman and assist machine.

• Caoimhín Kelleher (GK): 7 clean sheets across competitions; stepping up amid Alisson’s occasional absences.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

PSG’s 4-3-3 (1.88 goals per game in UCL) thrives on Dembélé’s flair and Vitinha’s playmaking, exploiting Liverpool’s occasional defensive transitions (0.75 goals conceded per game in UCL away games), though injuries to Nuno Mendes (ankle) and Gonçalo Ramos (knee) limit options, with Bradley Barcola doubtful (hamstring). Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 (2.25 goals per game in UCL) relies on Gakpo’s finishing and Salah’s creativity, using their high press (avg. 56% possession away) to disrupt PSG’s build-up (1.00 goals conceded per game at home). Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (out, hamstring), Joe Gomez (out, thigh), and Federico Chiesa (doubtful, fitness) are concerns, but Darwin Núñez (3 UCL goals) adds depth. Parc des Princes’ 48,000 fans will roar PSG on, but Liverpool’s attacking quality (18 goals in 8 UCL games) could test Benfica’s defensive resolve.

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Under 3.5

TIP 2: Both Team to Score - Yes

TIP 3: Correct score -1-1