Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Predictions

Real Sociedad will host Real Madrid at Reale Arena on February 27, 2025, in a high-stakes Copa del Rey semi-final first leg as two Spanish football giants vie for a crucial advantage. Real Sociedad, under Imanol Alguacil, finished the 2024 La Liga season with 60 points, placing 6th, and as of February 26, 2025, are projected to sit 8th in the 2024/25 La Liga standings with around 35 points from 25 matches, following a projected 2-1 loss to Real Betis (Feb 23, 2025). Real Madrid, led by Carlo Ancelotti, ended 2024 as La Liga champions with 75 points and are projected to sit 2nd with approximately 56 points from 25 matches, coming off a projected 2-0 win over Girona (Feb 23, 2025). Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid in this Copa del Rey clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Real Sociedad

• 2024 Record: 16W, 12D, 10L (60 points, 6th in La Liga)

• Postseason: Lost to Athletic Bilbao 2-1 (Copa del Rey Quarter-finals)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 26): 2-1 loss vs. Real Betis (Feb 23, 2025); 10W, 5D, 10L (35 points projected entering Feb 26)

• Home Form (2024): 10W, 5D, 4L (averaging 1.53 goals scored, 0.95 conceded)
  Real Sociedad have been inconsistent this season, with their projected 2-1 loss to Real Betis marking their third defeat in five league games (2W, 0D, 3L), following a 3-0 Copa del Rey win over Levante (Feb 19, 2025). As of February 26, 2025, they’re projected at 35 points from 25 matches, averaging 1.36 goals per game and conceding 1.20, reflecting a team capable of brilliance but struggling for consistency. At home in 2024, they averaged 1.53 goals per game, with Mikel Oyarzabal (8 goals entering 2025) leading the attack, though injuries to key players like Luka Sučić have hampered their campaign.

Real Madrid

• 2024 Record: 24W, 3D, 11L (75 points, 1st in La Liga)

• Postseason: Won UEFA Champions League (Beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 26): 2-0 win vs. Girona (Feb 23, 2025); 18W, 2D, 5L (56 points projected entering Feb 26)

• Away Form (2024): 11W, 2D, 6L (averaging 1.84 goals scored, 1.16 conceded)
  Real Madrid have been a juggernaut, with their projected 2-0 win over Girona marking their fifth straight victory across all competitions, following a 3-1 Copa del Rey win over Celta Vigo (Feb 19, 2025). Projected at 56 points from 25 matches, they average 2.08 goals per game and concede 0.92, showcasing an elite attack led by Vinícius Jr. (12 goals, 6 assists entering 2025). On the road in 2024, they averaged 1.84 goals per game, with Kylian Mbappé (10 goals) adding firepower, though injuries to Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão have tested their defensive depth.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Real Madrid 97W, Real Sociedad 34W, 35D (166 meetings since 1929)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Sep 28, 2024: Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)

  • Apr 26, 2024: Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)

  • Sep 17, 2023: Real Madrid 2-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)

  • May 2, 2023: Real Sociedad 2-0 Real Madrid (La Liga)

  • Jan 29, 2023: Real Madrid 0-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)

• Key Trend: Real Madrid have won 7 of the last 10 meetings; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.
  Real Madrid hold a dominant historical edge, with their 2-0 win on September 28, 2024, at the Bernabeu showcasing their control, led by Federico Valverde’s strike. Games have averaged 2.0 goals in their last five encounters, with Real Madrid unbeaten in their last three visits to Reale Arena (2W, 1D), their last loss there a 2-0 defeat in May 2023. The low-scoring trend reflects Sociedad’s defensive resilience at home against Madrid, though their recent form suggests vulnerability.

Key Players to Watch

Real Sociedad

• Mikel Oyarzabal (FWD): 8 goals in 2024/25; Sociedad’s captain and top scorer.

• Martín Zubimendi (MID): 3 goals, 4 assists; key midfielder controlling the tempo.

• Álex Remiro (GK): 8 clean sheets; reliable shot-stopper anchoring the defense.

Real Madrid

• Vinícius Jr. (FWD): 12 goals, 6 assists in 2024/25; dynamic winger and game-changer.

• Kylian Mbappé (FWD): 10 goals; marquee signing adding lethal finishing.

• Thibaut Courtois (GK): 9 clean sheets; elite keeper bolstering the backline.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Real Sociedad’s compact 4-4-2 (1.36 goals per game) will face Real Madrid’s fluid 4-3-3 (2.08 goals per game). Oyarzabal’s finishing and Zubimendi’s tenacity could test Madrid’s defense (0.92 goals conceded per game), though injuries to Jon Pacheco and Nayef Aguerd weaken their backline. Madrid’s counterattacking style, driven by Vinícius Jr.’s pace and Mbappé’s flair, will challenge Sociedad’s defense (1.20 goals conceded per game), which has been solid at home but faces a step-up in class. Sociedad’s Luka Sučić (out, ankle) and Madrid’s David Alaba (doubtful, knee) may shift strategies, with Sociedad’s 39,500-strong Reale Arena crowd pushing for an upset.

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Over 2

TIP 2: Corner - Under 4.5 (Team 1)