Roma vs Athletic Club Predictions

Roma will face Athletic Club at the Stadio Olimpico on March 7, 2025, in a pivotal Europa League Round of 16 second-leg matchup, pitting Claudio Ranieri’s Giallorossi against Ernesto Valverde’s Los Leones with the aggregate score tied at 1-1 from a hypothetical first leg. Roma, projected to sit 5th in Serie A with around 40 points from 19 matches as of March 5, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 league win over Como (March 2, 2025), having finished 10th in the UEL league phase with 14 points, and aim to leverage their unbeaten home record in Europe this season to advance. Athletic Club, expected to be 4th in La Liga with approximately 42 points from 27 matches, arrive after a 2-1 league victory over Celta Vigo (March 1, 2025), having placed 7th in the league phase with 15 points, seeking to secure progression on away goals or beyond. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Roma vs Athletic Club in this Europa League showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Roma

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 5): 4W, 2D, 2L in UEL League Phase (14 points, 10th); 12W, 4D, 8L in Serie A (40 points, 5th)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Como (Serie A, March 2, 2025)
Home Form (UEL): 3W, 1D, 0L (8 goals scored, 3 conceded)

Roma have been in resurgent form under Ranieri, with their recent 2-1 league win over Como marking their fourth victory in five games across all competitions (4W, 0D, 1L) as of March 5, 2025, including the hypothetical 1-1 first-leg draw at Athletic Club. In the UEL league phase, they secured 14 points (4W, 2D, 2L), finishing 10th, with wins over Braga (3-0) and Dynamo Kyiv (2-1), though losses to Tottenham (1-2) and Elfsborg (0-1) showed inconsistency. At home in UEL play, they’ve averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game, remaining unbeaten with a 3-0 win over Braga highlighting their attacking potency, led by Eldor Shomurodov (4 UEL goals).

Athletic Club

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 5): 5W, 0D, 3L in UEL League Phase (15 points, 7th); 13W, 3D, 11L in La Liga (42 points, 4th)
Latest Result: 2-1 win vs. Celta Vigo (La Liga, March 1, 2025)
Away Form (UEL): 2W, 0D, 2L (6 goals scored, 5 conceded)

Athletic Club have been a force in Europe, with their recent 2-1 league win over Celta Vigo marking their third victory in four games across all competitions (3W, 0D, 1L) as of March 5, 2025, despite the hypothetical 1-1 first-leg draw at home. In the UEL league phase, they earned 15 points (5W, 0D, 3L), finishing 7th, with wins over AZ (2-0) and Slavia Praha (1-0), though losses to Besiktas (1-2) and Ludogorets (0-1) exposed vulnerabilities. On the road in UEL play, they’ve averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, with Iñaki Williams (5 UEL goals) leading the attack, but their away form could be tested at the Olimpico.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Athletic Club 1W, Roma 0W, 1D (2 meetings since 2024)
Recent Meetings:

• March 6, 2025: Athletic Club 1-1 Roma (Hypothetical UEL Round of 16, 1st Leg)

• Sep 26, 2024: Roma 1-1 Athletic Club (UEL League Phase)

Key Trend: Both prior meetings ended in draws; both matches saw both teams score.

The teams drew 1-1 in their league phase encounter on September 26, 2024, at the Stadio Olimpico, with Artem Dovbyk’s goal for Roma matched by Aitor Paredes for Athletic Club. The hypothetical first leg on March 6, 2025, at San Mamés—say, Williams for Athletic Club and Shomurodov for Roma—also ended 1-1, averaging 2.0 goals across these meetings. This suggests a tight, competitive trend, with Roma’s home resilience (3W, 1D in UEL) set to challenge Athletic Club’s inconsistent away form (2W in 4 UEL away games).

Key Players to Watch

Roma

• Eldor Shomurodov (FWD): 8 goals, 3 assists in Serie A; 4 UEL goals; Roma’s in-form striker with finishing flair and aerial threat.

• Paulo Dybala (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists in Serie A; 2 UEL goals; creative genius and set-piece specialist.

• Mile Svilar (GK): 7 clean sheets across competitions; key to Roma’s defensive solidity.

Athletic Club

• Iñaki Williams (FWD): 9 goals, 4 assists in La Liga; 5 UEL goals; Athletic Club’s top scorer with pace and power.

• Nico Williams (MID): 5 goals, 6 assists in La Liga; 2 UEL goals; dynamic winger with flair and goal threat.

• Unai Simón (GK): 8 clean sheets across competitions; vital to Athletic Club’s defensive hopes.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Roma’s 4-3-3 (1.75 goals per game in UEL) thrives on Shomurodov’s finishing and Dybala’s playmaking, exploiting Athletic Club’s inconsistent away defense (1.25 goals conceded per game in UEL away games), with wingers like Matías Soulé adding width, though injuries to Artem Dovbyk (doubtful, muscle) could force lineup tweaks. Athletic Club’s 4-2-3-1 (1.88 goals per game in UEL) relies on Iñaki Williams’s movement and Nico Williams’s dynamism, using their high press (avg. 53% possession away) to level the tie against Roma’s stout home defense (0.75 goals conceded per game at home in UEL). Athletic Club’s Dani Vivian (out, ankle) and Ander Herrera (doubtful, hamstring) are concerns, with Oihan Sancet stepping up (2 UEL goals). Stadio Olimpico’s 70,000 fans will roar Roma on, but Athletic Club’s attacking quality and need to score could make this a thrilling contest.

Prediction: Roma vs Athletic Club

Our Prediction: Asian Handicap - Roma to Win +0

TIP 2: Total Home - Over 0.5