Sporting Charleroi vs Genk Predictions

Sporting Charleroi will face Genk at the Stade du Pays de Charleroi on March 1, 2025, in a critical Pro League matchup, as Round 28 brings together two sides battling for a top-six finish. Sporting Charleroi, under Rik De Mil, are projected to sit 8th with around 36 points from 27 matches as of February 26, 2025, following a 2-2 draw with Club Brugge (Feb 23, 2025), aiming to leverage their home advantage to push for playoff contention. Genk, managed by Thorsten Fink, are expected to be 4th with approximately 42 points, buoyed by a 3-1 win over Union Saint-Gilloise (Feb 22, 2025), looking to solidify their postseason spot. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Sporting Charleroi vs Genk in this Pro League clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Sporting Charleroi

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 26): 10W, 6D, 11L (36 points, 8th in Pro League)
Latest Result: 2-2 draw vs. Club Brugge (Feb 23, 2025)
Home Form: 6W, 3D, 4L (19 goals scored, 15 conceded)

Sporting Charleroi have been competitive, with their recent 2-2 draw against Club Brugge extending an unbeaten run of three league games (1W, 2D, 0L) as of February 26, 2025. Projected at 36 points from 27 matches, their last home win—a 2-1 victory over Cercle Brugge (Feb 15, 2025)—shows their strength at Stade du Pays. At home, they’ve averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game, reflecting a balanced side that could trouble Genk with the right execution.

Genk

2024/25 Record (Projected as of Feb 26): 12W, 6D, 9L (42 points, 4th in Pro League)
Latest Result: 3-1 win vs. Union Saint-Gilloise (Feb 22, 2025)
Away Form: 5W, 3D, 5L (18 goals scored, 17 conceded)

Genk have been a top contender, projected at 42 points from 27 matches as of February 26, 2025. Their 3-1 victory over Union Saint-Gilloise, with goals from Patrik Hrošovský and Jarne Steuckers, marked their fourth win in six league games (4W, 1D, 1L), showcasing their attacking flair. On the road, they’ve averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game, balancing offensive output with resilience, making them a tough test for Charleroi.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

Overall Record: Genk 18W, Sporting Charleroi 11W, 8D (37 meetings since 2000)
Recent Meetings:

• Dec 8, 2024: Genk 2-1 Sporting Charleroi (Pro League)

• Feb 11, 2024: Sporting Charleroi 1-3 Genk (Pro League)

• Aug 20, 2023: Genk 0-0 Sporting Charleroi (Pro League)

Key Trend: Genk have won the last 2 meetings; 3 of the last 5 H2Hs saw over 2.5 goals.

Genk have dominated recently, with their 2-1 win in December 2024 at Cegeka Arena—led by Tolu Arokodare’s strike—highlighting their edge. Charleroi’s last victory over Genk came in 2022 (2-1), but recent losses tilt the balance. Matches have averaged 2.4 goals in their last five encounters, suggesting a potentially open game.

Key Players to Watch

Sporting Charleroi

• Daan Heymans (MID): 8 goals in 2024/25; Charleroi’s top scorer and creative spark.

• Parfait Guiagon (MID): 5 goals, 4 assists; dynamic playmaker with pace.

• Hervé Koffi (GK): 6 clean sheets; anchors a solid defense.

Genk

• Tolu Arokodare (FWD): 10 goals in 2024/25; Genk’s leading scorer and physical threat.

• Jarne Steuckers (MID): 6 goals, 5 assists; key creator in midfield.

• Maarten Vandevoordt (GK): 7 clean sheets; vital for their backline.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Sporting Charleroi’s 4-2-3-1 (1.37 goals per game) relies on Heymans’ finishing and Guiagon’s flair, testing Genk’s defense (1.22 goals conceded per game). Genk’s 4-3-3 (1.63 goals per game) thrives on Arokodare’s presence and Steuckers’ vision, exploiting Charleroi’s backline (1.33 goals conceded per game). Charleroi’s Vetle Dragsnes (doubtful, injury) and Genk’s Bryan Heynen (out, suspension) may affect lineups, with Stade du Pays’ 14,000 fans adding pressure on Genk.

Prediction: Sporting Charleroi vs Genk

Our Prediction: Both Team to Score - Yes