Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Predictions

Stoke City will host Middlesbrough at the bet365 Stadium on February 26, 2025, in a critical Championship matchup as Round 34 brings together two teams with contrasting fortunes. Stoke City, under Mark Robins, finished the 2024 Championship season with 47 points, placing 19th, and as of February 25, 2025, are projected to sit 20th with around 35 points from 33 matches, following a projected 2-1 loss to Norwich City (Feb 22, 2025). Middlesbrough, managed by Michael Carrick, ended 2024 in 8th with 62 points and are projected to hold 6th place with approximately 44 points from 33 matches, coming off a projected 1-0 loss to Bristol City (Feb 22, 2025). Our expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough in this Championship clash?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Stoke City

• 2024 Record: 12W, 11D, 15L (47 points, 19th in Championship)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25): 2-1 loss vs. Norwich City (Feb 22, 2025); 10W, 5D, 18L (35 points projected entering Feb 25)

• Home Form (2024): 7W, 5D, 7L (averaging 1.42 goals scored, 1.37 conceded)
  Stoke City have struggled to find consistency, with their projected 2-1 defeat to Norwich marking their third loss in four league games (1W, 0D, 3L), following a 3-1 win over Swansea (Feb 15, 2025). As of February 25, 2025, they’re projected at 35 points from 33 matches, averaging 1.21 goals per game and conceding 1.58, reflecting a team battling to stay above the relegation zone. At home in 2024, they averaged 1.42 goals per game, with Lewis Baker (5 goals entering 2025) providing sporadic sparks, though defensive frailties persist.

Middlesbrough

• 2024 Record: 17W, 11D, 10L (62 points, 8th in Championship)

• Latest Result (Projected as of Feb 25): 1-0 loss vs. Bristol City (Feb 22, 2025); 13W, 5D, 15L (44 points projected entering Feb 25)

• Away Form (2024): 8W, 5D, 6L (averaging 1.68 goals scored, 1.32 conceded)
  Middlesbrough have hit a rough patch, with their projected 1-0 loss to Bristol City marking their fifth defeat in six league games (1W, 0D, 5L), despite a 2-1 win over West Brom (Jan 21, 2025). Projected at 44 points from 33 matches, they average 1.45 goals per game, with Emmanuel Latte Lath (8 goals entering 2025) leading a faltering attack, while conceding 1.36 goals per game. On the road in 2024, they averaged 1.68 goals per game, showing potency but inconsistency.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Middlesbrough 44W, Stoke City 39W, 27D (110 meetings since 1897)

• Recent Meetings:

  • Dec 14, 2024: Middlesbrough 2-0 Stoke City (Championship)

  • Mar 2, 2024: Stoke City 2-0 Middlesbrough (Championship)

  • Oct 28, 2023: Middlesbrough 0-2 Stoke City (Championship)

• Key Trend: Middlesbrough have won 3 of the last 5 meetings; 3 of their last 5 H2Hs stayed under 2.5 goals.
  Middlesbrough edged a 2-0 win in their latest clash on December 14, 2024, at Riverside Stadium, with Latte Lath and Finn Azaz scoring, but Stoke City have won three of the prior five encounters, including back-to-back 2-0 victories in 2023 and 2024. Matches have averaged 2.0 goals per game in their last five meetings, with Stoke’s home resilience occasionally shining through, though Middlesbrough’s recent form gives them an edge.

Key Players to Watch

Stoke City

• Lewis Baker (MID): 5 goals in 2024/25; Stoke’s top scorer and midfield spark.

• Ali Al-Hamadi (FWD): 4 goals; emerging striker with pace (assuming recovery from injury).

• Daniel Iversen (GK): 6 clean sheets; key despite defensive struggles.

Middlesbrough

• Emmanuel Latte Lath (FWD): 8 goals in 2024/25; Middlesbrough’s leading scorer.

• Finn Azaz (MID): 4 goals, 3 assists; creative force in midfield.

• Seny Dieng (GK): 7 clean sheets; vital in a shaky backline.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Stoke City’s pragmatic 4-2-3-1 (1.21 goals per game) will face Middlesbrough’s possession-based 4-2-3-1 (1.45 goals per game). Baker’s vision and Al-Hamadi’s runs (if fit) could test Middlesbrough’s defense (1.36 goals conceded per game), which has been leaky during their losing streak. Middlesbrough’s attacking approach, driven by Latte Lath and Azaz, will challenge Stoke’s backline (1.58 goals conceded per game), though their recent form slump raises doubts. Stoke’s Ryan Mmaee (out, injury) and Middlesbrough’s Aidan Morris (out, injury) may shift strategies, with Stoke’s 30,000-strong bet365 Stadium crowd pushing for a survival boost.

Prediction: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Our Prediction: Total Goal - Over 2

TIP 2: Double Chance - Draw or Middlesbrough