Toulouse vs Monaco Predictions

Toulouse will face Monaco at the Stadium de Toulouse on March 8, 2025, in a key Ligue 1 matchup, with both teams vying for crucial points in the 2024/25 season’s second half. Toulouse, projected to sit 11th with around 29 points from 24 matches as of March 6, 2025, are coming off a 2-1 league loss to Brest (March 2, 2025), aiming to leverage their home form to climb the table. Monaco, expected to be 5th with approximately 40 points from 24 matches, arrive after a 1-1 draw with Nice (March 2, 2025), seeking to maintain their push for a Champions League spot. This expert prediction explores team form, key players, head-to-head stats, and betting tips to answer: Who will win Toulouse vs Monaco in this Ligue 1 showdown?

Team Form & Recent Performances

Toulouse

• 2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 6): 8W, 5D, 11L in Ligue 1 (29 points, 11th)

• Latest Result: 2-1 loss vs. Brest (Ligue 1, March 2, 2025)

• Home Form: 5W, 3D, 4L (18 goals scored, 14 conceded) Toulouse have been inconsistent, with their 2-1 defeat to Brest marking their second loss in three games (1W, 0D, 2L) as of March 6, 2025. Projected at 29 points from 24 matches, they’re mid-table, with a 2-0 win over Nantes (Feb 15, 2025) highlighting their home resilience. At the Stadium de Toulouse, they’ve averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game, showing attacking potential but defensive vulnerabilities, now facing a Monaco side they’ve struggled against recently.

Monaco

• 2024/25 Record (Projected as of Mar 6): 11W, 7D, 6L in Ligue 1 (40 points, 5th)

• Latest Result: 1-1 draw vs. Nice (Ligue 1, March 2, 2025)

• Away Form: 5W, 3D, 4L (17 goals scored, 15 conceded) Monaco have been steady, with their 1-1 draw against Nice extending an unbeaten run of four games (2W, 2D, 0L) as of March 6, 2025. Projected at 40 points from 24 matches, they’re in the European hunt, with a 3-0 win over Reims (Feb 14, 2025) showcasing their road strength. Away from home, they’ve averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, with Mika Biereth (10 goals) leading the charge, posing a threat to Toulouse’s backline.

Head-to-Head Stats & Historical Context

• Overall Record: Toulouse 13W, Monaco 19W, 11D (43 meetings since 2018)

• Recent Meeting:
  October 26, 2024: Monaco 2-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1, Round 9)

• Key Trend: Monaco have won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs; 60% of their meetings produced over 2.5 goals. The October 2024 clash saw Monaco secure a 2-0 home win, with Biereth and Takumi Minamino scoring, reflecting a trend of Monaco’s recent dominance (avg. 2.6 goals in last 5 H2Hs). Toulouse’s last home win over Monaco was a 2-1 result in March 2023, suggesting an upset is possible but unlikely given current form.

Key Players to Watch

Toulouse

• Frank Magri (FWD): 6 goals, 3 assists in Ligue 1; Toulouse’s top scorer with pace.

• Vincent Sierro (MID): 4 goals, 5 assists; captain and creative hub.

• Kjetil Haug (GK): 5 clean sheets; key to any defensive stand.

Monaco

• Mika Biereth (FWD): 10 goals, 2 assists in Ligue 1; Monaco’s leading striker.

• Lamine Camara (MID): 3 goals, 6 assists; dynamic playmaker.

• Radoslaw Majecki (GK): 6 clean sheets; anchors a solid defense.

Tactical Insights & Match Dynamics

Toulouse’s 4-3-3 (1.38 goals per game) relies on Magri’s finishing and Sierro’s vision, targeting Monaco’s moderate away defense (1.25 goals conceded per game), though injuries to Zakaria Aboukhlal and Rasmus Nicolaisen may force adjustments. Monaco’s 4-2-3-1 (1.63 goals per game) hinges on Biereth’s movement and Camara’s creativity, pressing high (avg. 52% possession away) to exploit Toulouse, with Aleksandr Golovin doubtful (hamstring) but likely replaced by Maghnes Akliouche. The Stadium de Toulouse’s 33,000 fans will rally the hosts, but Monaco’s quality could turn this into a tight, goal-heavy contest.

Prediction: Toulouse vs Monaco

Our Prediction: Double Chance - Draw or Monaco

TIP 2: Total Goal - Over 2.5