NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, 11th November
NLB Staff
10.11.2024 12:48
Mavs vs Nuggets Prediction
With the Dallas Mavericks looking like one of those rosters that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, they face a Denver Nuggets squad that has lately been on very hot streak enter this game. Seeing that the Mavs just came off against 1-point loss against the top-seed Phoenix Suns, this Nuggets roster just convincingly won their 3rd straight game. This game will be played on November 11th at 6:30 A.M. in Ball Arena of Denver. Underneath are our betting tips, key head-to-head trends, player props, and public trends to come up with a possible outcome for this game.
Mavs vs Nuggets Key Betting Tips & Predictions
1. Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Moneyline Pick
As the Nuggets have their money line at -126, they should easily win this one due to their fact of having elite pieces in the middle. Even though Dereck Lively II could return for Dallas in this game, just having Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell is a massive mismatch against the greatness of Jokic plus the perimeter shooting of Peyton Watson. With the small forward position involving Miachel Porter Jr. as a better two-way piece plus offensive scoring ability than Klay Thompson, it will be up to the Mavericks point guards to keep them within very close proximity. As Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are a phenomenal duo, they might not be enough since the Nuggets do have two great scoring guards in Peyton Watson and Jamal Murray as well. All in all, the -126 looks great for the Nuggets moneyline and they should start a new streak against Dallas.
2. Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Point Spread Pick
Seeing that the Nuggets have a -1.5 spread, this is very worth the pick because of their ability to dominate inside too. Even though Dallas will keep it close because Luka Doncic can handle a smaller defender like Jamal Murray, the biggest factor in this game comes down to whether Daniel Gafford can stop Nikola Jokic. Something very hard to do, it will be a tough task at Gafford’s size with no help defense from P.J. Washington due to injury. Now that they have Dwight Powell there, Peyton Watson could play his developmental two-way role that this Nuggets squad has been very excited about. With Christian Braun going up against Kyrie Irving, they both will be able to dominate each other offensively even though Irving has a tiny edge on defense due to his pick-pocketing ability. Coupling all this with the fact that the Nuggets still have Miachel Porter Jr. as their top wing against a less efficient Klay Thompson, the -1.5 spread for Denver looks good.
3. Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Over/Under Pick (Total Points)
As the over/under in this game is at 229 points, this is an amazing line because these two teams have shown to be top-scoring offenses at every phase. With the Mavericks having one of the most elite backcourts in the NBA today, they play a Nuggets backcourt that has a very solid shooting guard and star-level point guard. With both teams having great wings that knock down threes at high rates, the Nuggets will be able to carry this line by a little bit due to their advantage at center over the two key Mavericks big-men. Seeing this and their game two matches ago added up to 234 points, this should be another very high-scoring output.
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Top Player Props
Luka Doncic over 31.5 points at 1.95: Even though Jamal Murray has proven to be one of the most athletic defenders in the league, something has been different about Luka Doncic which has helped him create the craziest of shots whenever the shot clock is running down. As someone who can really drive in using his massive frame and pull up from mid-range as well, he should continue building on his 28.8 point-per-game season average. With the Mavericks going to rely on him in such a big matchup like this, he should be able to continue dominating scoring-wise and hit the over.
Nikola Jokic over 26.5 points at 1.87: As one of the best scoring centers in the league, Jokic has continued to prove himself as an unstoppable force when creating second-chance opportunities or working off pick and rolls in the perimeter. Going up against a much smaller Daniel Gafford, Jokic should continue having a great season to build his season average from 28.9 points. In a potentially high-scoring affair, he will be one of their top two scorers during this matchup and should get over his 28.9-point season average.
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Injury News & Impact
Dallas Mavericks Injuries: As the Mavericks have been without Maxi Kleber since their 2nd game of this season, they could potentially end up being hamstrung without Dereck Lively II or P.J. Washington playing due to their shoulder and knee injuries, respectively. As Lively II, 9.3 points, was a key member of their scoring from the bench, losing him could cause them to have to use a less efficient scorer like Dwight Powell after starter Daniel Gafford is not the greatest shot-maker either. With both P.J. Washington, 9.4 points with 7.7 rebounds, and Maxi Kleber potentially ruled out, this group will have to watch Naji Marshall play extended minutes for the first time.
Denver Nuggets Injuries: As the Denver Nuggets still have Aaron Gordon, 15.4 points, out due to his right calf strain, their development of Peyton Watson has turned out to be a great replacement. Outside of that, having no Vlakto Cancar is not a huge issue and the Nuggets should continue dominating with the same rotations throughout this game.
Mavs vs Nuggets Head-to-Head Trends
In a matchup that has always seemed to be very tightly contested, this game could go either way as both teams are 5-5 against each other in their last 10 matchups. Although the Denver Nuggets have a slight edge in this game as the better overall team, it could be a 3rd straight game taking place in Denver that comes down to the final position and has a margin of within 2 points. As the Nuggets are 3-2 against the spread in their last 5 matchups vs Dallas, this should be a contest where they could improve upon that record even more. As both teams have gone well over 100 points each in their last 5 outings, this should be another contest that ends up being very high-scoring.
Betting Insights & Public Trends
Going into this game, 55.7% of the bettors think that Denver is going to come out victorious against the Dallas Mavericks.
Mavs vs Nuggets Final Prediction
Going into this game, the Denver Nuggets have started to find their rhythm and groove from the end of last regular season. While they are playing another very strong Dallas Mavericks squad, their inside advantage should help them edge out this game. Having Nikola Jokic at center, his ability to play all parts of the game has made this Nuggets team so great for several years. One of the best rebounders in the game, he will have an easy task against Daniel Gafford by forcing him to play perimeter defense with Jokic’s prowess as a pass and three-point shooter as well. Although Nikola has never really been good on defense, Gafford’s offensive game has been lacking for a couple of years now and his shot-blocking ability will be taken due to Jokic’s size. With Peyton Watson being one of the best three and defensive guys for Denver, his ability to switch on Gafford with P.J. Washington missing could help propel Jokic to also have control against Dwight Powell. As the Nuggets have Jamal Murray playing point guard, he and Luka will have an amazing one-on-one battle throughout this game. Although the Nuggets point guard can create stops on Doncic, there will be times Luka’s shooting and dribbling talent can take over. With Kyrie Irving being the Mavs shooting guard, he should be able to score a ton of points and give Dallas the advantage there over Christian Braun. Seeing that Braun hasn’t proven to be a great defender, his size and length will give the Nuggets some extra juice offensively. With Michael Porter Jr. of Denver having a great year from his perimeter spot and driving in while grabbing numerous boards, he should be able to outlast Klay Thompson’s three-point varage in this game. But, if the Mavericks get Dereck Lively II back at full health for this game and can dominate the paint outside of where Jokic stands, this could be a victory for them.
Our prediction: Denver Nuggets win and cover their -1.5 spread, while the score goes over 229 points.
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