NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns
NLB Staff
06.11.2024 12:29
Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns
As the Phoenix Suns have been one of the hottest teams to start this season with improvement on both ways, they face a Miami Heat squad that’s been pretty solid during the beginning of this season. With the Suns having a 6-1 record after a narrow 118-116 win against the Philadelphia 76ers, Miami comes off a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Sacramento. This game will be played on November 7th at 7:30 A.M. IST in Footprint Center of Phoenix, Arizona. Below are our betting tips, player props, key injuries, and recent head-to-head matchups to come up with an accurate prediction for this game.
Key Betting Tips & Predictions
1. Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Moneyline Pick
The money line pick in this game is at -189 for the Suns and seems like a great one. As Phoenix has entered this game on a great streak, it should continue with the dominance of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be two of the most efficient scorers. As Jusuf Nurkic helps with the rebounding over Bam Adebayo underneath, this team should continue relying on him to give them 2nd chance opportunities. Meanwhile, seeing that Tyus Jones has had immense growth in his game and should continue being a great facilitator over Terry Rozier, the Suns should win their 3rd moneyline pick over the Heat in a row, this time being at -189.
2. Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Point Spread Pick
Given that the Suns have a -5 spread in this game, it is a great pick due to the fact they could have a huge advantage guarding the Heat. As Nurkic has turned his game around and become a better two-way player, he could help provide support for Bam Adebayo as the Heat keep hoping for him to attack as their most consistent player during regular season play. Kevin Durant can go up against a much less consistent defender in Nikola Jovic, giving him space to continue dominating as the Suns' best true mid-range shooter. Having Bradley Beal coming off screens with Tyus Jones looking for him after making moves on Terry Rozier, could create chances for him to get into a rhythm as well. With Devin Booker showing great dribbling ability and the ability to knock down threes with ease, the Suns should have a huge lead in this game. Seeing this, that -5 spread looks good for this matchup against Miami.
3. Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Over/Under Pick (Total Points)
This game will go over 222 points between the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns. As both teams have shown to have great scoring point guards who can facilitate the floor, they have had centers who could provide a solid 14-18 points a night. With three-point shooters and great mid-range scorers on both ends as well that can drive in at their own will, this game should be pretty high-scoring. As the last matchup was combined for 223 points, this should have a few more points due to offensive changes on both ends.
Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Top Player Props
Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 points at 1.80: Although Bam Adebayo has shown a lot of inconsistency with his three-ball this season, 21.4% from deep, he should have the strength to potentially help have a dominant game over Nurkic. As there have still been a few leaks in Nurkic’s defensive game, Adebayo can exploit them by forcing the Suns center to come outside on open mid-range shots or even create dunks over him. After a tough offensive night against the Kings, Adebayo should improve on that 15.3 point-per-game season average by not having to face Sabonis.
Tyus Jones over 21.5 points, rebounds, and assists at 1.54: As Tyus Jones has been a huge addition to this Phoenix Suns roster, his ability to play all three phases of the game is something that has stood out in this young, impressive season. Given that he is averaging 9.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, having to go up against a guy Terry Rozier will help increase that stat-line and create a way for him to be the most impactful. Seeing this, the over is a good value pick due to him being able to outduel Rozier’s weakness at snatching passes and closing out on a variety of shots.
Heat v Suns Injury News & Impact
Miami Heat Injuries: As the Miami Heat have most of their rotation out there, they will miss one key piece in Jamie Jaquez due to an illness. Someone who has come up key as a rebounder, 7.6 rebounds, will have to miss time and cause Jimmy Butler to play a more expanded role at his length. In addition to his 9.4 points per game, the Heat will also be missing a key veteran leader who has kept this squad together through ups and downs in Kevin Love due to another conditioning problem.
Phoenix Suns Injuries: With the Phoenix Suns having no injuries for this current matchup, they should once again be able to run their full rotations against the Miami Heat.
Heat v Suns Head-to-Head Trends
Seeing the Heat have won two straight games in convincing fashion against the Miami Heat, this streak should continue with them having a clear advantage. As they won by 13 or more points both times, this should be very similar as the Suns have shown to control opponents with their surprising defensive prowess this season. Even though the Heat had won the previous two games and are undefeated looking at the spread this season, the Suns are 4-1 against the spread vs Miami over their past 5-match head-to-heads. Seeing this, it seems like Phoenix will easily improve its record in that department again.
Betting Insights & Public Trends
Seeing the public trends closely for this matchup, 64.9% of the bettors think the Phoenix Suns will get past the Miami Heat in this matchup.
Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Final Prediction
As the Phoenix Suns have been one of the most complete teams this season, they have shown great ability to dominate both ends of the floor. Playing against a Heat team that has struggled in the paint and even finishing the game, this could potentially be a game Pheonix wins with ease. Seeing that Jusuf Nurkic has become a much better rebounder and shown the ability to finally block shots under Mike Budenholzer’s coaching, he will continue being a key piece against Bam Adebayo. Seeing some of the in-game struggles the Heat center has had, Nurkic could end up winning this matchup and cause a lot of passes to be forced out. Seeing Tyus Jones having a great ability to defend at the point, he will be able to slow down Terry Rozier and not be able to find Tyler Herro. The one issue for this Miami squad is that even when they have found Herro this season, his and Jimmy Butler’s inconsistencies have kept them second-guessing. With Jamie Jacquez out for this game, Kevin Durant will take advantage of this loss and keep switching to create a mismatch on Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro so he can get into his mid-range flow. Seeing that Bradley Beal has consistently started as a great two-way play every night, he could end up on a much weaker Nikola Jovic leading to easier buckets if he and KD switch. If not, he could continue stopping Jimmy Butler on offense, while creating a solid offensive game with his three-point shooting. As Devin Booker is their main perimeter shooting star, his ability to go on someone who can’t close out in Tyler Herro will put Miami at a huge disadvantage in this game. But, if the Heat offense can get it together with Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler playing consistent basketball, plus their defense gets a huge boost from 3/d guy Duncan Robinson, they could potentially keep this game close.
Our prediction: Phoenix Suns to win and cover the -5 spread, while the score goes over 222 points.
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