NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 11th November
NLB Staff
10.11.2024 12:57
Warriors vs Thunder Prediction
As the Golden State Warriors have been one of the best shooting teams around the league, they play a top Oklahoma City Thunder that has dominated like there is something to prove opening this campaign. With the Warriors coming off a blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, this OKC squad beat Houston to go 8-1. This matchup will occur on November 11th at 5:30 A.M. IST in Paycom Center of Oklahoma City. Below are our betting tips, key players, important injuries, and head-to-head trends to come up with an outcome for this game.
Warriors vs Thunder Key Betting Tips & Predictions
1. Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Pick
As the Thunder moneyline is at -288, it is worth taking because they do have an advantage in this game that should help them win. Seeing that they wanted to get better from last year, the growth on defense with Alex Caruso has helped Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turn into one of the best two-way players league. Given that he’s been a great leader, the Thunder also have a great scoring center in Chet Holmgren, who should have a massive advantage over Draymond Green. With their forward position being of great presence as well Andrew Wiggins and Johnathan Kuminga’s scoring won’t be able to match the output of Jalen Williams plus Luguentz Dort on a nightly basis. Having Dort switch on Podziemski or Hield whenever he checks in, will force Curry to take a lot of unneeded shots towards the end. Seeing this, OKC should win their -288 moneyline, making it their 4th in 6 games.
2. Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder Point Spread Pick
With the spread being at -7.5 for the Thunder in this game, it is a bit of a risk due to the Warrior's greatness to keep games close. As they have a +7.5 spread, that’s the right pick because of their offensive prowess to be within striking distance. Given that Stephen Curry goes up against Shai-Gilegous Alexander, both of them should produce scoring-wise, while Shai has the defensive lead due to his agility and speed. With the middle including someone as athletic and versatile as Chet Holmgren, this team should dominate the glass against a past-his-prime Draymond Green. With Johnathon Kuminga having to go up against a three-point specialist like Jalen Williams, it could lead to a bigger gap towards the end of this game. In addition, as Alex Caruso will be on Buddy Hield and Bradin Podziemiski, he can close out on their threes and force a lot of turnovers with their steals. Although this is true, Andrew Wiggins will come up big for the Warriors and make it much tighter, helping the +7.5 spread look stronger.
3. Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder Over/Under Pick (Total Points)
As the score in this game is at an over/under of 236.5 points, it should be a very high-scoring affair. Two teams that have some of the best offenses in the league, they feature great point guards and wings that can knock down threes with ease. Although the Thunder have an advantage at center in this game, Golden State has a massive one at small forward with a much-improved scoring machine. This coupled with the fact that the last game went for 274 points, it should be a matchup that will fill up the stat sheet.
Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder Top Player Props
Draymond Green Under 6.5 rebounds at 2.1: As Draymond Green has shown a little bit of regression in his rebounding abilities, his matchup against Chet Holmgren could continue making that issue occur. Given that he is someone averaging just 5.2 boards a night, having Kevon Looney and Johnathon Kuminga get boards makes his number even less. Seeing this, Draymond will continue having a season-average total in rebounds or somewhere under that limit.
Jalen Williams Over 18.5 points at 1.80: Seeing that the forward has been one of the best spot-up shooters in the league, his advantage could force out Kuminga a lot. With Chet Holmgren garnering a lot of attention, he could be open for shots in the corner and improve his 40.0% from three. Seeing this, he should go well over the season-average in scoring this game.
Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury News & Impact
Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries: As the Thunder will once again be without Isaish Hartenstien, 8.3 rebounds a night last season, due to his left-hand fracture, Oklahoma City has managed to run their rotations at a very high level despite this vital loss during the early part. As Kenrich Williams, 4.7 points plus 3.0 rebounds, and Jaylin Williams are missing being key bench pieces, guys like Cason Wallace will have to step up more while Chet Holmgren should get extended minutes.
Golden State Warriors Injuries: Looking at the Golden State Warriors team, they have no current injuries at this moment and should be able to run the same rotations that have kept them rolling during the season.
Warriors vs Thunder Head-to-Head Trends
As this matchup between OKC and Golden State used to be dominated by the Warriors earlier on, it has been more fairly match in recent times. With Oklahoma City having won 3 of the previous 5 matchups, most of these games have been won by one to two possessions between both squads. In fact, 2 of their last 4 matchups have been decided by 2 points and Golden State has been 3-2 against the spread during last five. Knowing this and the fact that each squad has scored over 108 points in their last 8 meetings, it should be a very high-scoring which comes down to the wire.
Betting Insights & Public Trends
Looking at the public trends for this game, 74.2% of the bettors are taking the Oklahoma City Thunder to beat this Golden State squad.
Warriors vs Thunder Final Prediction
As these two teams enter the game having played some very strong basketball, Oklahoma City has shown more capability of playing all-around offense instead of just relying on threes. Seeing this, plus the fact that they are the 2nd seed in the West, Oklahoma City should continue their trend to first in the West. With this game featuring a point guard battle between Stephen Curry and Shai Gilegous-Alexander, the OKC one should have a slight advantage due to his ability to play both ends at an elite level. Looking at the growth of Gilegous-Alexander on defense, he can Stephen Curry to have a few turnovers and missed shots but it won’t be that much because of the Warriors' greatness to find space for scores from anywhere. Meanwhile, Shai will use his speed to get down the floor whenever creating these steals while also using his dribbling and passing arsenal to find corner shooters or drive in. As the Thunder also will have elite defender Alex Caruso switch on Curry in this game, it should cause him to have to pass it inside where Golden State’s scoring has been the weakest by a stretch. Even though Johnathon Kuminga has developed as a great mid-range and inside scorer, his blocking ability will come into question against a great perimeter-scoring wing in Jalen Williams. Seeing that Williams can also really drive in off the dribble if Draymond Green steps up to guard him, Chet Holmgren could have an easy one-on-one matchup inside. As Holmgren continues to be one of the best rebounders in the game and developed into a great blocker, his size advantage over Green should give OKC something great to work with inside. Coupling this with the fact that the Thunder have young scorers like Cason Wallace and Isiash Joe on their bench, this game can be one by Golden State if Kevon Looney does a great job rebounding as a backup and Buddy Hield plus Bradin Podiesmki can keep knocking down threes in their starting lineup.
Our prediction: The Oklahoma City Thunder win, but the Golden State Warriors cover their +7.5 spread, and the score goes over 236.5 points.
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