NBA Picks and Betting Tips: New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks
NLB Staff
04.11.2024 02:12
hawks vs pelicans picks
As the New Orleans Pelicans enter this matchup fully healthy and playing at the highest level, they will be playing a Hawks squad that has regressed a lot after starting this season very well. With this being their 1st matchup of the season, the Hawks are trying to rebound after losing their 4th straight, while New Orleans is at an even 3-3 after beating the Pacers 125-118. This game will be played on November 4th at 5:30 A.M. in State Farm Arena of Atlanta, Georgia. Below are our vital injuries, key player props, and betting picks in order to create a potential outcome for this matchup.
Key Betting Tips & Predictions
1. New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks Moneyline Pick
As the Pelicans moneyline is at -185, this is a must take because the Pelicans should have control from the beginning. With them having their key shooters still on the court and a facilitator like Jose Alvarado, problems could occur for Trae Young to single-handedly carry the Hawks even though he has great ability. With Daniel Theis having shown great shooting prowess for New Orleans, Oneyka Okonwgu and Clint Capela could be in a lot of trouble as the Pelicans center can really space the floor. Given that the Pelicans are 2-1 on the moneyline against Atlanta in their last 3 matchups, they should improve their record and hit it again.
2. New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks Point Spread Pick
This game’s spread is at -6.5 for the New Orleans Pelicans and is something that is worthy to take. As the Pelicans enter this matchup with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram creating that scary duo they started in 2020, it has become nearly impossible to stop as both have dominated defenses through shot creation. Meanwhile, the Hawks missing Dyson Daniels will be a huge problem as Ingram will be able to handle Garrison Matthews and Zion can dominate Capela plus Jalen Johnson in the middle. With Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado being a great defender, he will give offensive-minded star Trae Young a lot of tough looks and create his own offense against the Hawks guard who has struggled guarding fast guards. With Alvardo throwing passes up to centers like Daniel Theis with ease, Capela has struggled being a good rebounder and defender against offensive centers like the Pelicans new one. Seeing this, it will be a convincing win for the Pelicans against a really injured Hawks team that could change if Dyson Daniels and De’Andre Hunter return into full form.
3. New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks Over/Under Pick (Total Points)
As this game is missing a lot of key players, the total over/under will be at 222 points for this game. Even though the Pelicans are missing some key three-point shooters, their two best forwards will be starting and continue dominating from all angles of the basket. Similarly, the Hawks are going to try and continue playing great offense even though they lost some clutch deep shooters. Seeing this, plus the fact that their last game went for 219 points when both teams were depleted as well, this game won’t be too much on the low-scoring spectrum as well. With both teams scoring over 100 points each and over 220 in 3 of their past 4 matchups, this game should continue being pretty high-scoring since both teams still have their core offensive pieces on both sides.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks Top Player Props
Trae Young Over 19.5 points at 1.94: As the offensive game plan would have really worked if Dejounte Murray started for the Pelicans, Jose Alvarado, 1.5 steals, will really limit Trae Young’s ability to drive in because of his high-iq. But, as someone who is averaging 27.7 points, his three-point shot making ability will give Young more space as the Pelicans will be without Herb Jones to close out. Given that De’Andre Hunter’s size is something that Jordan Hawkins will have to worry about and Alvardo will switch on the Hawks new offensive threat in Garrison Matthews, Young could get a lot of one-on-ones with a less quicker defender like Brandon Ingram or Zion. With his ability to score at a rapid pace, it will be another 20+ point game for him.
Brandon Ingram over 22.5 points at 1.65: With the Pelicans missing CJ McColloum heading into this game, Brandon Ingram will be their main threat to shoot from three. As someone who averages 23.0 points per game, his ability to get into space and having to go up against Garrison Matthews is a massive advantage for this star. With Zion Williamson getting guarded by De’Andre Hunter, Ingram will have a lot of chances to beat Caplea in the paint and handle both Matthews plus Trae Young whenever they switch. Given this, Ingram should definitely be able to increase his season-high after this game.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks Injury News & Impact
New Orleans Pelicans Injuries: As the Pelicans enter this game, they have multiple injuries that will change momentum throughout all 4 quarters. With Dejounte Murray, 14 points with 10 assists, already missing every game except the first due to a wrist injury, they now have lost two more big pieces in Herbert Jones and CJ McColloum. Given that Jones, 1.8 steals, was a big-time defender in the middle and took away a lot of Zion Williamson’s issues, they will have to rely more on Yves Missi’s development now. As McColloum was really this team’s second best scorer, 38.2% from three, his loss over the last three weeks has forced a less efficient scorer in Jose Alvarado to take a lot more shots. Playing against a better Hawks defense than from last season, these issues could be huge as many Atlanta players will lockdown Zion.
Atlanta Hawks Injuries: Although the losses of Vit Krejci due to a thigh injury and Dominick Barlow because of a back problem aren’t huge, this group could potentially be without their 2nd best guard in Dyson Daniels since his hip issue has become bigger. With 12.8 points plus 2.8 steals per game, he was one of the premier two-way guards in the league, but now Keaton Wallace will have to end up being in for a long period of time. Given that Bogdan Bogandovic, 8.0 points, is ruled out for a while with his hamstring injury, this Atlanta team won’t be able to space the floor like last season and require Trae Young to keep being their only real threat. The one benefit they have from this is that De’Andre Hunter, 18.5 points and 6.0 rebounds, will most likely return from his knee injury and be a key piece alongside Trae Young for scoring, while a big-man like Cody Zeller adds great rebounding abilities after taking the last game off for personal reasons.
Head-to-Head Trends
A matchup that seems to not occur too much, the Pelicans and Hawks are meeting for the first time since New Orleans beat Atlanta 116-103. With this being a very evenly matched head-to-head, the Pelicans and Hawks are both 2-2 against each other during the past 4 matchups. Although this is true, New Orleans has managed to keep a 4-1 record against the Hawks against the spread over their last 5 games. With both teams having scored more than 100 points each during this time, the Pelicans have averaged 113 points per game.
Betting Insights & Public Trends
Looking at the current betting trends for this game, 70.4% of the bettors think that the New Orleans Pelicans will knock off the Atlanta Hawks.
Final Prediction
As the Pelicans enter this matchup completely depleted, they are facing another very injured squad in the Atlanta Hawks. The one key in this game though is that the Pelicans defense has been playing at a much higher level than the Hawks and should continue showing in this matchup. With Jose Alvarado having to go up against Trae Young, he will be able to slow him down a bit on the offensive end and is someone that really could take over offensive games against weaker defenders like Young. With this being a big weakness, it could lead to a ton of other advantages on the New Orleans side including Zion Williamson’s mismatch on Jalen Johnson. With Alvarado’s ability to pass into space, Williamson will be able to create a lot of explosive plays against Jalen Johnson and use his dribbling to find great-three point opportunities. As Johnson seems to be slow off screens, Williamson and Brandon Ingram can create a pick and roll game that only Hawks defender De’Andre Hunter will be able to stop. With Dyson Daniels missing as someone who could create traps and slow down ball handlers like Jordan Hawkins at the shooting guard spot, Garrison Matthews could have a lot of trouble as someone just getting used to game speed on defense. But, if Clint Capela could turn into the rebounder he once was and create a great duo with Oneyka Okowngu inside when they both are on the floor, it could create more opportunities that lead to a much closer game.
Our prediction: The Pelicans win this game and cover their -6.5 spread, while the total score goes over 222 total points.
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