NBA Picks and Betting Tips: Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic
NLB Staff
04.11.2024 02:03
mavs vs magic picks
With the Dallas Mavericks entering this matchup as one of the better rosters around the NBA, their opponent in the Orlando Magic could potentially be depleted with injuries after a pretty hot start. Looking at their last game, Dallas took a tough 108-102 loss to a very underrated Houston Rockets team, while the Magic lost their 2nd straight by taking a 11-point defeat to the Cleveland Cavaliers. This matchup will happen on November 4th at 6:00 A.M. IST in Orlando at Amway Center. Below are our betting odds, public trends, important injuries, and player props to cultivate a prediction for this game.
Key Betting Tips & Predictions
1. Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic Moneyline Pick
As the moneyline pick for the Mavericks is -300, this is very accurate because they should handle the Magic with ease. As Orlando lost their biggest offensive player in Paolo Banchero, a lot more pressure will be on Franz Wagner who has never shown greatness as the first option. Being guarded by P.J. Washington and having to stop his perimeter shooting could be a huge issue along with the thought of Anthony Black having to control Irving’s scoring. With Doncic known for making crazy shots, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jalen Suggs will have to bring doubles, giving up a lot of other easy shots. In addition, the Magic now really only have Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner as great offensive options with Pope just being a solid three-point shooter at most. Wendell Carter Jr. will have a tough time guarding Daniel Gafford and Lively II underneath, making this game very favorable for the Magic. As the Mavs are looking for their third straight moneyline pick victory, there is a very good chance they hit it again in this game.
2. Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic Point Spread Pick
As the Mavericks have a -6.5 spread, it should be a great pick for this matchup. As Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will continue their great combination as one of the most unstoppable scoring backcourts in the league, Jalen Suggs will have a tough time handling both. Since Anthony Black will be on the other side, the Mavs should really have Kyrie Irving use his dribbling skills to drive in a lot or kick it out to an open Klay Thompson with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope having to help up. Although Franz Wagner has been a great offensive player for the Magic, he will have his hands full against Dereck Lively II off the bench as a great scorer. With P.J. Washington being a great two-way player that can slow him down, this game can end up being a 10+ point victory for Dallas making their -6.5 spread very strong.
3. Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic Over/Under Pick (Total Points)
With the over/under being 226.5 points during this game at 1.80, this game should involve a lot of creativity in the mid-range and some great drives to the basket. As both teams have two guards that have shown great ability to score from deep and in the paint, they should really help make this a very-high scoring game. Even though Orlando has some key pieces missing, this score should be somewhat lower than the 260 combined points during their last game. With the combined score having gone over 218 points in 3 of the past 4 matchups, it should be similar in this game.
Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic Top Player Props
Klay Thompson Scores Over 21.5 at 1.95: As the Mavericks enter this game playing against a Magic team that lost their 2nd best defenders, their offense should fire on all cylinders. Since Luka Doncic will be getting guarded by Jalen Suggs and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will lock on to Kyrie Irving, Thompson will be able to find a lot of open spots for three. As the Magic’s Anthony Black has shown struggles guarding perimeter spot-up shooters, having to handle someone who shoots 38.0% from deep and scores 15.6 points a game will have a big night with tons of opportunities.
Jalen Suggs Over 15.5 points at 2.00: Although the Magic will not have as much focus in the middle of the floor now that their star power-forward is injured, Jalen Suggs is someone who can dribble around Luka Doncic’s defense. As he is averaging 18.7 points per game this and shooting 38.3% from three, Suggs has a great growth in his offense and will get a lot of one-on-one’s due to Kentatious Caldwell-Pope’s three point shooting. With Anthony Black being a great dribbler as well, he will use his point guard skills to help Suggs step into threes and mid-range shots while working on many screens. Seeing this and how Jalen’s game has improved post-Banchero’s injury, he really has the ability to score a lot of points on a less athletic defender like Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic Injury News & Impact
Dallas Mavericks Injuries: As the Mavericks are going to miss Maxi Kleber once again off their bench as the biggest three and defensive guy, they should be fully healthy every else to run the normal rotations.
Orlando Magic Injuries: With the Magic hoping to get Wendell Carter Jr. back after missing Friday vs the Cavaliers due to a knee tendinitis issue, it will be key as Paolo Banchero is set to miss 4-6 weeks due to a right torn oblique. While he was their main forward, 29.0 points , 8.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, his leadership skills are something that Franz Wagner wouldn’t even be able to provide. With Wagner moving down to power forward due to this huge loss, the Magic won’t have the same consistent explosive plays in painted areas and have to rely on a young Anthony Black to either play small forward or switch places with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. It is going to be a tough 2nd matchup without Banchero as this Magic team has to play a great defense like Dallas.
Head-to-Head Trends
As these teams have had very close matchups for the most part, the Mavericks have won 4 of their last 6 games against Orlando. With 4 games ending in a point differential of less than 10, Dallas has been 2-2 on the road since the start of 2021 against this Magic team. Given that the Mavs are 3-2 against the spread vs the Orlando Magic during their past 5 matchups, this game could very easily improve their record. Although most games have been pretty low-scoring between these two squads, Dallas has averaged 112 points per game in the last 4 games against Orlando.
Betting Insights & Public Trends
Seeing the current public trends for this game, 74.6% of the people think that the Dallas Mavericks will beat Orlando.
Final Prediction
As the Mavericks enter this game looking much sharper than the way they started, their opponent’s in Orlando are missing a key piece named Paolo Banchero. With Dallas having Luka Doncic running the point and facilitating the floor, it will be a tough matchup for even as elite of a defender as Jalen Suggs. Even though he could force Doncic into not being allowed to drive in that much, one inch given by Suggs could allow Luka to knock down crazy shots from 30+ feet. In addition, Anthony Black will start at shooting guard and have to guard someone with as great of ball handling skills as Kyrie Irving. Even though Black will provide a pretty solid offensive game with his great shooting range, Irving will make it tougher on the other end as well given his great reach-in ability. This inexperience will likely force Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to switch on the Mavs shooting guard, while Klay Thompson will get a mismatch at small forward over Black. With Klay being one of the better three-point shooters around the league, his length will help knock-down a lot of perimeter shots and help create a duo with P.J. Washington inside. But, if Wendell Carter Jr. can return to his full health and get Daniel Gafford inside, while Wagner does his job on Washington both ways, the Magic could keep this game a lot closer.
Our prediction: The Dallas Mavericks win this game and cover their -6.5 spread, while total score goes over 226.5.
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